Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Enjoy This Beautiful Weather While It Lasts

In case you are wondering, the severe weather events of last week are still being investigated by the good folks at the NWS office and we should have a final tally within the next day or two.  So far, the total number of tornadoes stands at just over a dozen here in E OK and that is not counting those that also occurred in NW Arkansas as you can see on the map.

[img]

At least the weather continues to cooperate with another beautiful day today under sunny skies and with northerly winds and mild temperatures.  Here is the statewide max/min temperature map, courtesy of the good folks at the OK Mesonet.  Keep in mind that the normal range for Tulsa at this time of year is 77/56 and today’s numbers were 78/53.  As is often the case and was very apparent this morning, nighttime temperatures in the more rural locations were noticeably cooler than the urban environment due to the urban heat island effect.

[img]

Today’s northerly winds also brought in some very dry air with dew point temperatures in the 30s this afternoon.  By the way, the dew point temperature is the temperature of saturation so those dew points in the 30s here in NE OK are some very dry air for us and together with the clear skies and light northerly winds tonight will lead to a cool start to our Thursday morning.  Often, the dew point can be an indicator of the overnight low temperature but we will not be cooling off that much tonight.  Even so, temperatures in the 40s are expected to start the day on Thursday.  Sunny skies all day tomorrow will result in a quick warm-up during the day with afternoon highs expected to be in the mid-upper 70s.  High pressure will also be settling over us during the day with a light northerly breeze.

After that, as you can see on our forecast page, temperatures will be warming up, particularly for the overnight hours as southerly winds return Friday and continue into early next week.  Those southerly winds will also bring moisture back over the state so after another sunny day on Friday, more clouds are expected on Saturday, followed by chances of showers/storms starting on Sunday into next week. 

Notice the upper level flow at around the 18,000’ level as of 1PM today which has a storm system to the east of us, ridging aloft just to our west, and another storm system just off the W Coast.  All these features will be moving eastward over the next few days providing the very pleasant weather we will enjoy.

[img]

However, the next map shows the position of those features by 1 PM Monday of next week and by then the system off the W Coast has obviously progressed into the Central Plains.  This will be the next storm system that will impact our weather and the longer range guidance is pretty consistent in its movement.  However, as always the devil will be in the details regarding the ultimate placement of showers/storms and their relative severity.  Since, this is May, then obviously there will be at least some severe risk but it will be several days before that can be addressed more specifically.

[img]

For the time being, it appears that the chance of storms on Mother’s Day will be primarily over the more western counties possibly reaching E OK that evening or night. 

[img]

Monday and perhaps into the day Tuesday looks to be our best chance for storms here in E OK.  For now, will go with a dry and milder forecast for Wednesday with the steady eastward progression of the storm center which would push a weak cool front across the state, but that is certainly subject to change since it is currently out over the Pacific Ocean. 

So, after a very unsettled period last week, this week has certainly provided some very pleasant Spring weather but next week looks to see a return to a more unsettled pattern once again.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates. 

Dick Faurot