Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Pleasant Now But Tracking Storm System

Thursday, April 14th 2016, 3:56 am
By: Alan Crone

We should be in store for some nice weather today and tomorrow before a stronger and slow moving system approaches the state this weekend.   Our main chance for storms will begin sometime Sunday night and may continue through Tuesday with Sunday late into Monday morning to midday having the best chance for rain and thunderstorms.   The main threat will be pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall but some severe threats may be possible across part of the state.   

The light showers we experienced yesterday are now east of the state.   We could see a small shower this morning around Sallisaw to Ft. Smith but this chance appears very low.  We’re in a holding pattern until the weekend system nears the region.   This means our temperatures this morning will be in the mid-40s with highs this afternoon moving into the lower 70s.   A few morning clouds will remain but should scatter as the day progresses.   Southeast winds from 10 to 15 mph will be likely along with some sunshine by afternoon.    Friday also looks very nice with lows around 50 and highs in the upper 70s.   Sunshine and light southeast winds from 10 to 15 mph will be likely. 

Then the weekend approaches.   And so does a slow moving system.

The pattern supports a strong looking upper level low currently near the Aleutian Islands to move southeast, over the west coast, and then into the southwestern U.S. by Friday.   This low will become “ cut off” from the upper flow and spin over part of New Mexico for the weekend before weakening and “ opening” Monday into Tuesday.   The result will be a nearly south to north upper air flow this weekend until Sunday night when the flow becomes slightly more from the southwest to northeast.   A surface boundary will be positioned to our west this weekend and will slowly move eastward due to the nearly parallel upper air flow.   The surface flow will be characterized by a strong south wind contributing to increasing low level moisture ahead of this slow moving system.    We could see a few spotty showers Friday night into Saturday morning as low level moisture streams across the area but this chance will remain around 10% or less.   Western OK will see higher chances for storms Saturday with Central OK experiencing the best chance Sunday.   Sunday night into Monday the system gets a shove eastward and our chances will be increasing by Sunday late into most of the day Monday.   Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall will be possible and there may also be a severe weather threat with this system.   But the slow movement and the nearly south to north upper flow could limit the severe potential.   Additionally, the possibility of thunderstorms across North TX or southern OK may limit the severe weather potential to those areas southward into part of central TX for Monday.   We’ll not have a higher confidence until the timing becomes more secure.    But the output from a consensus of data this morning suggest low instability Sunday night into Monday with the true warm sector ( better severe parameters) remaining south of the northeastern OK region.

Temperatures this weekend will be mild with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s and highs in the mid-70s.   

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone