Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Some Wednesday Showers

Wednesday, April 13th 2016, 4:17 am

A disturbance is moving across Texas this morning and into Oklahoma today.  Some light shower activity is brushing the southern third of the state and will advance to the north by morning to midday.   While the higher chances for measurable rainfall will remain across the southern third of the state, we’ll include a chance for some showers across northern sections, including the Tulsa metro. 

No severe weather will occur in eastern OK.   Any lightning or thunder should remain across the Red River Valley into north TX.   Mostly cloudy and cool conditions are likely today with highs in the lower to even the mid-60s late this afternoon.   The majority of the day will be cool.  

Grab a jacket and maybe some rain gear.   Southeast winds will return this afternoon around 10 mph and signal a return to warming air by Thursday and Friday.   The best chance for impactful rainfall will remain late this weekend into early next week.

Our storm system is brushing the state this morning with some showers from north TX into southern OK but the rain shield (spotty in some locations) is advancing northeast.   The lower level of the atmosphere remains relatively dry across far northern OK but some rainfall is occurring across the state.   Some precipitation will be possible for the next few hours through about noon near Tulsa.    Amounts will remain very light.

Thursday and Friday will feature mild and uneventful weather.   Lows in the upper 40s and lower 50s will be followed Thursday by highs in the mid-70s and Friday into the upper 70s.   Mostly sunny conditions along with southeast winds around 10 to 15 mph will be common across eastern OK.

This weekend will focus upon an upper level low that may stay positioned across the southwestern or the 4 corners region while strong southerly flow from the Gulf moves across Texas into Oklahoma.   The result will be increasing rain and storm chances Saturday across the western half of the state.   The upper air flow will be from the south to the north across most of the southern plains.   This flow will become parallel to the axis of greater moisture and boundary.   The result will be a slow moving cold front and a slow moving storm system.  

We may not see any rainfall in the eastern portions of the state until late Sunday into Monday.    The timing of this weekend system is still rather nebulous due to the differences in some model data specifics when comparing the EURO and GFS output.   The pattern would support at least a mention of severe weather, but the specific parameters may keep higher chances for severe either west or southwest of the eastern OK area.  

I think the overall main hazard with the approaching storm system will be the potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall that could lead to localized drainage issues.   We’ll position the pops for the highest chances late Sunday night into Monday.   This is about 12 hours slower than yesterday’s 7 day.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day.

Alan Crone



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