Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Pleasant Tuesday Weather

Tuesday, April 12th 2016, 4:07 am
By: Alan Crone

Very nice weather is likely today across most of eastern OK with some morning clouds giving way to sunshine and light northeast winds around 10 mph.   Highs will be in the upper 60s to near 70.   A weak but fast moving wave will be near the region later tonight from the southwest and may provide a few showers or sprinkles into Wednesday across part of southern and eastern OK.   Temperatures will stay in the mid to upper 60s for the highs with east and southeast winds returning to the area.   A strong looking system will arrive this weekend with increasing thunderstorm potential.   Pockets of heavy rainfall may also occur on occasion as the system slowly moves eastward.   This weekend system may linger into Monday, or possibly Tuesday morning, before exiting the region.

The cold front moved across the area yesterday bringing north winds and cool conditions to northern OK.   Thunderstorms developed across far southern OK and north TX during the afternoon on the boundary with large hail the main issue for storms in southern OK yesterday afternoon and evening.   

Our weather pattern will remain typically active for April but the system that arrives later tonight into Wednesday will encounter a relatively dry atmosphere.    Enough low and mid-level moisture should support a few showers or some sprinkles on occasion as the wave lifts from the southwest to northeast across the state beginning later tonight.   We have kept this mention as “sprinkles” on the big 7 day planner for Wednesday during previous updates, but will include a 20% pop for the period.  

Despite this small wave arriving late tonight into Wednesday, our weather looks good for the rest of the week.   South winds will return Wednesday afternoon and remain from the south Thursday and Friday with a slowly increasing temperature profile.   Morning lows in the 40s and 5os will be followed by highs in the mid to upper 70s Thursday and Friday. 

The weekend will feature slightly stronger winds Saturday and gusty south winds Sunday with lows in the upper 50s and lower 60s.   Daytime highs Saturday will begin the mid-70s and Sundays highs may stay in the lower 70s with increasing rain and thunderstorm chances.    The pattern this weekend will support a mention of strong to severe storm activity but there will remain questions to the placement of the system.   Additionally, the uninhibited southerly flow from the Gulf of Mexico may also support pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall that could lead to some localized flooding in a few spots.   But we still have some important discrepancies regarding the exact location of the axis of higher precip Sunday with the GFS being almost all west of the Tulsa area, while the EURO is across the eastern half of the state.   We’re leaning toward the EURO with a higher Sunday pop for this forecast updates.  

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone