Expect warm and windy conditions today before severe weather chances increases. A surface low strengthening out to our west will create a tight pressure gradient across the state, and wind gusts will be able to top out near 35 mph from the south-southwest.
Dew points and temperatures will rise today setting the stage for severe weather this evening. The most conducive areas for severe storms will be from Tulsa north and then across western and central Oklahoma.
Storms should fire in Kansas along a cold front late this afternoon while additional storms fire to our southwest close to the surface low. Storms to our southwest will move NE into Green Country, at the same time storms from the north will move south. This evening and overnight will be the best timing for strong to severe storms for northeastern Oklahoma.
A cluster of storms should form and move slowly east/northeast. Heavy rain with these slow moving storms could cause some minor street flooding.
Hail up to tennis ball size along with 60 to 70 mph wind gusts are the main threats for tonight.
Tornado chances remain low tonight but not zero. The most likely locations will be across western Oklahoma.
Here in Green Country, locations around Tulsa to Copan and back to the west have better chances of seeing storms capable of producing tornadoes. It is important to stay weather aware. These storms will be affecting us after dark tonight, making them even more dangerous.
Tomorrow morning, showers and a few storms will still be around. More storms are expected to develop by mid-day and move into southeastern Oklahoma. The cold front will continue to move south with the adjacent surface low moving along the Red River.
The best threat for storms Monday afternoon will be across southeastern Oklahoma will all modes of severe weather possible.