Alan Crone's Weather Blog: More Red Flag Warnings

Thursday, April 7th 2016, 4:13 am
By: Alan Crone

Our next system with storm chances will arrive mostly Monday but a few showers or storms will be possible Saturday into Sunday morning as low level moisture begins streaming across the region.   Some of the storms Monday will more than likely be strong to severe but the specific timing and greatest threats will be discussed in more detail tomorrow as confidence in the data hopefully increases.   Highs today will stay in the mid to upper 70s .   A weak boundary will move across the area this morning bringing northwest winds and sunshine.   The fire danger will continue to be elevated today but not nearly as high as the previous few days.   But Red Flag warning criteria may be met regarding the relative humidity this afternoon.  The wind speeds will be questionable.

Weather Alerts

A surface ridge of high pressure will quickly build down the central plains into Oklahoma Friday and this will bring some of the best weather of the week into the area tomorrow.   Light wind, clear sky, and pleasant temperatures will round out the work week with lows in the upper 30s and lower 40s and daytime highs around 70.   I think the highlight for most folks Friday will be the lack of the strong winds we have experienced for most of the week.   But the winds will quickly return Saturday from the southeast and increase to 20 and 30 mph Sunday as the next storm system quickly organizes to our west.

A warm front may develop late Saturday and spread northwest across the area by Sunday morning.   Sometimes these types of patterns will lead to a few scattered storms on the leading edge of the moisture gradient at it streams northward.   We’ll keep a few storms in the forecast for this time period with a 10% mention Saturday morning and a 20% mention Sunday morning. 

Sunday looks windy and mild with mostly cloudy conditions.   A few showers or storms can’t be ruled out but we think most, if not all, locations will remain dry for middle of the  day.    A strong surface low will develop across northwestern OK or southwestern Kansas and slowly move eastward and southeast Monday.    Rich low level moisture is expected to remain in place across central and eastern OK where thunderstorms will be possible.   The best chance appears to be Monday afternoon and evening, but no doubt a few storms will fire up Monday morning.    Any of these afternoon storms would have severe potential based on the pattern and climatology, but we’ll need to hold off any other specific statements until we get closer to the time domain and examine the synoptic set-up.  The possible early start for storms Monday may lower the severe threat.  

Tuesday will more than likely be cool and dry as the system will move away from eastern OK.   

Thanks reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone