Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Severe Storms Possible Today

Wednesday, March 30th 2016, 4:19 am
By: Alan Crone

A strong storm system will move across the central plains today allowing a dry line and cold front to move across the state this afternoon and late tonight.   Thunderstorm chances will remain this morning and into the evening hours before the cold front exits southeastern OK early Thursday morning.   Some of the thunderstorms this morning across southern OK or north TX may produce some hail and gusty winds.    The afternoon and evening storms may have a higher potential for severe weather including large hail, damaging winds, and the possibility of a tornado warning or two.   Cooler air will follow Thursday with lows in the lower 40s and highs in the mid-60s.  

WARN Interactive Radar

The moisture is rapidly returning across the state this morning as pressure falls continue along and ahead of the Rocky Mountains this morning.   Gusty southeast winds from 15 to 25 mph will remain for the day with mostly cloudy and warm conditions.   Highs today will stay in the mid to upper 70s across eastern OK with lower 80s likely across the western third of the state where the fire danger will be critically high.  

The overall setup remains unchanged from yesterday.   We’re still watching to see how any morning convection may disrupt or delay the afternoon and evening thunderstorm probabilities.   Some showers and storms should develop during the morning hours with a high concentration across southeastern OK.   But we’ll have a chance here in the metro region.  The longer the morning showers and storms will linger across the area, the lower the potential instability for a possible 2nd round later this afternoon and evening.   But most data indicate the recovery period will be sufficient for the atmosphere to destabilize and recharge for the evening storms.   The first batch of scattered showers or storms this morning could produce some marginally severe hail and even some strong winds but the overall threat should remain limited to the southern sections of the state.   Stranger things have happened so you need to remain aware of storms, even this morning. 

The afternoon and evening storms will have a higher chance of being severe but the overall coverage will depend on what happens this morning.    The dry line should approach the Tulsa metro region by 7pm tonight and may stall for the rest of the night to our west before the cold front arrives around 4am.   The cold front should move southeastward and quickly end the severe weather threat after the 2am to 5am hours across southeastern OK.   There’s always a chance the system will slow down a few hours, so we’ll keep the mention for a few severe storms across southeastern OK through the 5am hour.    But most activity will probably exit around 1am to 2am across the eastern sections.

Northwest winds will arrive early tomorrow morning with dry and stable air quickly moving southward.   Highs in the mid-60s will be likely along with decreasing clouds and sunshine by the afternoon.  Only the NCEP WRF-ARW-NAM runs bring a few showers back into northwestern OK Thursday evening with a weak upper level wave.   I’ll not include this pop.

Another surge of cooler air will brush northeastern OK Friday morning along with gusty northwest winds.   Lows near 40s will be followed by highs in the lower 60s.   A few showers may be possible across far southern OK or north TX Friday, but should remain south of most of our area.

Saturday morning’s lows near the mid-30s will be followed by highs near 70 along with light winds and mostly sunny conditions.

Sunday into the first part of next week will feature a nice warmup with highs in the lower 80s Monday.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Please remain aware of your weather surroundings today and more so this evening.

Alan Crone