The fire danger will remain extremely high again today across part of the state including potions of northeastern OK. Strong south to southwest winds from 20 to 40 mph will be likely today along with relatively low afternoon humidity and warm temperatures nearing 80 near Tulsa. Red Flag warnings and fire weather watches will be posted again today for portions of the state. Wind advisories will also be required for a large portion of the state today with gusts near 40 mph. Some higher gusts will be possible across north-central and northwestern OK today.
A strong upper level system will eject into the central plains states later tonight into Wednesday while rapidly lifting northeast by Thursday morning. A dry line and cold front will sweep across Oklahoma Wednesday and Wednesday night bringing a slight chance for a few storms to eastern Oklahoma. A few of the storms may be strong to severe. The higher chances should reside along or east of highway 69. The Tulsa metro will keep only a 20% chance of storms Wednesday afternoon from 2pm to 5pm. Cooler air will follow the Wednesday system with Thursday afternoon highs in the mid to upper 50s. Another storm system will move into the state Easter Sunday with a chance for rain and colder conditions.
The pattern continues to be active and should remain so for the next few days. We’re seeing the typical strengthening of the upper air flow common with early spring. This will bring frequent storm systems across the region, typically one or two every 4 to 6 days. The limiting factor for severe storm development for these early spring systems is usually the quality and depth of moisture in the atmosphere. Low level moisture is currently being suppressed into the Gulf of Mexico this morning but will attempt to rapidly return Wednesday morning in the form of lower 50 degree dew points near and east of the metro. We could have a few spotty showers Wednesday morning as the leading edge of moisture enters southeastern OK but this chance will also remain very low. The dry line across western Oklahoma Wednesday morning will move eastward to near the Tulsa metro by 2pm Wednesday afternoon. A few storms may attempt to develop but the south to southwest winds in the atmosphere will tend to move our arriving low level moisture eastward. This means the better chances for storms should remain across far eastern or southeastern OK by late Wednesday into the evening hours. The dynamics associated with the system would be strong enough for a few severe storms, but the better chance may still reside across the far southeastern or east-central sections of the state.
The next system will arrive this weekend. Rain chances, with some thunder, should increase Saturday afternoon as the next upper level system begins moving in our direction. Data this morning suggest the surface low may be to our south with north winds developing with the frontal passage late Saturday afternoon. This may keep the severe weather threat well south of the region. Rain chances will remain Sunday along with north winds and cooler air. Temperatures may stay 50s for most of the day. This will depend upon how long the precipitation will last across the area.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.