Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Nice Weekend, But Active Next Week

Friday, March 4th 2016, 4:19 am
By: Alan Crone

The temperatures are cool this morning with most locations in the mid-30s.   The first day of the Bassmaster Classic will have great weather with south winds and sunshine at Grand Lake.   Our weather pattern will remain favorable for good conditions through Saturday but Sunday into early next week a pattern change will bring storm chances back into the state.   Some of the storms may be strong to severe early next week.   The pattern will quickly return to a southwesterly upper air flow later this weekend.   A series of disturbances will rotate near our area with the first one nearing the state Saturday night into Sunday.   A stronger system is likely Monday and we may have additional forcing near the area for both Tuesday and Wednesday.   Looks like an early spring weather pattern will bring some heathy rain chances back to the state early next week.

Red Flag Fire Warning Information

Today the weather will be fine with sunshine and south winds around 10 to 15 mph in the metro for the morning to midday with gusts near 20 to 25 mph this afternoon.   Temperatures will top out in the upper 60s and lower 70s with dry and sunny conditions.   There is some concern that dews-humidity may mix down lower than modeled.   If this occurs, Red Flag warnings may be issued for portions of northern OK.   Osage and Pawnee counties will be included in Red Flag status at this point from our friends at the National Weather Service.

Saturday morning starts in the 40s and will see afternoon highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s.   A weak front may enter northern OK Saturday allowing east or northeast winds for the majority of the day around 10 mph.   Slightly higher wind speeds will be likely across the open water of Grand Lake.

Saturday night the first impact of the pattern change will be felt with increasing southerly winds and increasing low level moisture.   As this process occurs, some scattered showers or storms may develop across north Texas and expand northeast into part of eastern OK by sunrise Sunday.   As the pattern evolves, the warmer air aloft may effectively “cap” the atmosphere from most storm activity for most of the day Sunday (after the early morning hours).   That’s why we’re sticking with a relatively low chance for Sunday.   The stronger south winds will increase at 15 to 25 mph for the day with cloudy sky and highs near 70.

Monday into Tuesday a stronger disturbance will rotate across the southwestern US into the plains.   The winds may become quite strong from the south around 20 to 35 mph with cloudy and mild conditions.   Highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s will be likely.   Storms should develop across part of western OK Monday and migrate east to northeast during the afternoon and evening hours.   Our rain and storm chances will increase Monday night into Tuesday morning as this first upper air disturbance lifts out across the central plains.   The data diverge Tuesday night into Wednesday but will still create active weather with some storm chances.    Locations across southeastern OK and northern Texas may see flooding rain potential as a boundary is stationary across portions of the state.   The Tulsa metro may be on the north side of this boundary Wednesday and Thursday with very little rainfall.   Close call.   At this point, we’re sticking with a 50-50 shot for Wednesday, but much higher pops will be required for southeastern OK. 

The next major upper level low will take a southern route.   Very unusual for this time of year, but the low will swing across the far southern sections of Mexico and enter south Texas late next week.   Cyclogenesis will occur with a surface low developing and moving northeast across the Texas into part of Oklahoma by next weekend.   At least that’s the plan at this point!   We’re an entire week away from this part of the forecast, and changes are likely.  

Bottom line:  A nice weather pattern for today and Saturday before storm chances return early next week.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone