A few showers and storms did form last night as a fast moving short-wave moved across the area. A few severe storms were also noted with some hail across part of Pontotoc, Pittsburg, and Pushmataha Counties. A few lingering showers may occur early this morning but will quickly erode leaving us with mostly sunny conditions along with north winds and highs in the mid-60s. The fire danger will be elevated today with humidity around 30% during the afternoon along with strong northwest winds. The strong south winds will return Friday with another relatively high fire danger afternoon. The pattern will support mild temperatures through the weekend but will also bring rain and storm chances back into the area Sunday through early next week. A few of the storms next week may become severe.
The pattern is becoming active. Our departing wave will bring us a nice afternoon, and Friday looks decent with highs near 70, but this weekend the upper air flow will be changing, and this will bring some active weather back to the region. I’m running slightly behind my inner-office schedule this morning and will skip some of the details and try to highlight the important parts. (It’s strange that I can get to work at 2am and still find myself running behind schedule!)
A weak boundary will move across the area Saturday morning bringing an east or northeast wind for the first half of the day. As the pattern shifts, the pressure will begin rapidly falling to our west and northwest Saturday night. This will quickly bring clouds and additional low level moisture (higher dew points) into the region. As this process occurs, some spotty showers or even thunderstorms will be possible. The better time period would be from Sunday morning to midday, and then again Sunday late into Monday morning. But this chance will remain relatively low, around 20 to near 30% for eastern OK. South winds will increase Sunday with highs near 70.
The main upper level trough will be nearing the area early next week and this will act to reinforce some of the important surface features (increasing dews with moisture also becoming deeper into the atmosphere) with surface temperatures still very mild. Strong south winds will prevail Monday and most of Tuesday. Some scattered storms will be possible Monday and Tuesday. The higher chances for thunderstorms may eventually occur around Tuesday night into Wednesday of next week. At this point, large scale motions in the atmosphere combined with the anticipated moisture would result in heavy rainfall potential but may also result in severe thunderstorm chances. Some of the specific timing will more than likely change, so check back for updates.
Thanks for reading the abbreviated version of the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a good day.