Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Warming Trend With Increased Fire Danger

Temperatures this morning are starting in the 20s, including the Tulsa metro, but will quickly move into the upper 50s or lower 60s this afternoon along with southwest winds at 10 to 20 mph.   Warmer air will move across the state Saturday with morning lows in the 40s.   Daytime highs will top out in the lower to mid-70s Saturday along with gusty south to southwest winds.   The fire danger will be increasing due to the gusty southwest winds and dry vegetation across the area.   A weak front will enter the state Sunday but a strong storm system is likely to impact the state Tuesday.   Spring-like thunderstorms may occur Tuesday with a noticeable cold snap Wednesday.  

The good news for the short term will center upon improving temperatures for today through the weekend.   We continue to forecast highs slightly above the model output for Saturday due to the influence of warming air aloft and the presence of stronger south to southwest surface winds.   

A weak front will enter the state Sunday as a fast moving short wave will drop across the central plains.   This front will move across the area with little change in temperatures.   Sunday’s highs may still be in the lower 70s for many locations along with southwest winds shifting to the north.    A few spotty showers may still occur but the coverage will be very low, mainly across extreme eastern OK, and the window will be very small. 

The front will bring slightly drier air into the state but only for a very short term.

The next upper level system will be moving on-shore around Sunday night into Monday and is forecast to gain strength.   The data regarding this feature continue to be extremely poor with any run to run consistency.   The confidence in this part of the forecast will remain low, and additional changes should be anticipated.  

As the low draws near the area,  surface dew points in the form upper 50s will quickly surge northward Monday afternoon.   This will bring moisture back across the central and eastern third of the state by the evening hours.   As the main upper level low nears the state, a strong surface area of low pressure will develop somewhere in the southern or central plains.   Storms will more than likely develop as these features influence northeastern OK.      Due to the broad spread in model data, temperatures Wednesday could be as low as 45 or as high as 66 regarding the afternoon maximum.     I have chosen the warmer side of guidance for this forecast update, which matches closer to suggestions from the EURO.

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!