Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Rain Changing To Snow Saturday

It is pretty obvious where the sun came out today, if only briefly, by looking at the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Upper 50s and even some 60s show up in SC and SW OK which correlates well with where there was at least some sunshine.

Notice also the rainfall map over the last 24 hours; we certainly did not need the moisture, but at least those amounts will not aggravate the already high water levels in our lakes and rivers. What clearing has taken place today will be replaced with overcast skies tonight through Friday and also for Saturday. Together with southerly winds overnight, that means temperatures will remain very mild to start the day Friday with most locations holding steady in the 40s.

There will also be some occasional drizzle or perhaps a few light showers to go with the overcast skies overnight and through Friday. Friday afternoon, our winds will be shifting from W or SW to northerly so daytime highs will still be very mild as you can see on our forecast page.

After that, it starts getting very interesting. That shift in winds marks the leading edge of colder air that will be very evident by Saturday morning into early next week. Temperatures for the first hours of the day Saturday will be above freezing, but gusty NW winds will make it feel much colder. Also, temperatures will likely be dropping to near the freezing mark by afternoon or early evening.

At the same time, a disturbance aloft and a surface low pressure system will keep abundant moisture over us through the day Saturday. As colder air at the surface and aloft arrives, there will be a transition from rain Friday night to snow during the day Saturday. Right now, it looks like Saturday morning will start off with rain, but changing over to snow during the morning hours and then ending from W-E that afternoon.

Several issues that will have to be dealt with during this event; notice the soil temperature map and it is apparent that the ground is still relatively warm. Also, the colder air that will be arriving Saturday morning is still expected to stay just above freezing for much of the day, not dropping below the freezing mark till later in the afternoon as the snow is ending.

As a result, although the snow may be heavy at times, there will be significant melting that takes place as it falls through the relatively warmer air near the ground and also once it reaches the ground. Obviously, elevated surfaces, grassy surfaces, etc...will have the greatest likelihood of seeing accumulations.

Bottom line is that this appears to be one of those events in which there will be much more snow that falls than will actually accumulate. Some of the model data would suggest as much as 6” of snow falling from the sky, but accumulations will probably be only on the order of an inch or two, if that, for many of us.

As is always the case with snowfall, there will be some winners and losers with the potential for locally heavy snow bands persisting over one particular location long enough for much higher amounts to accumulate whereas nearby locations will have much less.

At any rate, the coldest air of the season will be with us going into early next week despite some sunshine coming back out during the day Sunday. Temperatures will begin to moderate going into next week with another weak boundary arriving along about Tuesday, but, in general, temperatures should be back to near normal by Wednesday or Thursday of next week.

Notice that the 8-14-day outlooks also suggest temperatures averaging near normal along with a more settled weather pattern over that week long time frame.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot