Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Good Christmas; Heavy Rains For Weekend

Hard to believe this is the first full day of winter. Notice the max/min temperature map for today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet; those numbers are 20 degrees or so warmer than normal for our daytime highs - even after a frosty start this morning.

In fact, here in Tulsa we were within 2 degrees of a record daytime high this afternoon. These numbers continue the roll of above normal temperatures we have been on all month long. Notice, for example, the chart which shows that so far for the month of December, we are running more than 8 degrees warmer than normal and there have been only three other Decembers that were warmer.

And, as you can see on our forecast page, that trend will continue for several more days at least. In fact, gusty south winds and cloudy skies will keep temperatures from dropping much tonight as we should start the day Wednesday in the 50s. There will also be a chance of some showers and perhaps even a rumble of thunder after midnight in advance of another system moving across the state.

Cannot rule out even a few storms reaching severe limits for the far E/SE counties during the late night hours, but anything that does form will quickly move out of the state by sunrise or shortly thereafter.

A more westerly wind behind this system will bring drier air and, therefore, clearing skies, but the air behind it is not necessarily cooler. Plenty of afternoon sunshine together with the very mild start should once again see daytime highs reaching well into the 60s. That evening will see a quick cool-down, though, with light winds, fair skies and drier air in place.

Even so, temperatures to start the day on Christmas Eve and Christmas Day will be above normal, and the daytime highs will also be on the order of 10-15 degrees above normal. Light winds for Thursday and a return to southerly winds on Friday together with a mix of sun and clouds will make for some pretty nice weather both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

Clouds will be on the increase as the day wears on for Christmas Day as a very potent storm system continues to develop in the southern Rockies. This is the system mentioned in yesterday’s blog that has been very poorly handled by the longer range guidance in recent days. However, the more recent data runs have been more consistent and continue to paint a very wet picture for a large part of the country which will have significant travel impacts for many locations this weekend and into early next week.

Notice the 7-day QPF map, for example, which continues to suggest the potential for flooding rains in many locations during the Sat/Sun time frame. Keep in mind, this map is showing the liquid potential - which means there could be some significant wintry precipitation for locations where it will be colder. That will likely include the more NW and W counties of our state and points westward and northward from there.

Also, the backside of the system could produce some wintry weather for portions of Green Country as it moves out on Monday.

Again, as I pointed out yesterday, there continue to be lots of question marks as the main storm center is still way out in the Pacific Ocean at this time and has yet to be well sampled by the data network. Therefore, strongly advise keeping a close eye on the weather if you have any travel plans this coming weekend, as the forecast could certainly change significantly as better data becomes available in the days ahead.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot