Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Warmer Days Ahead

The ‘official’ low temperature early this morning in Tulsa was 26, which makes it the coldest we have been so far this autumn season. However, with the light winds and abundant sunshine, temperatures rebounded rather nicely this afternoon, as you can see on the max/min temperature map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.

Keep in mind that our daytime highs at this time of year would normally be in the low 50s.

And, as mentioned in yesterday’s blog, there continues to be no signs of any really cold air coming our way anytime soon. In fact, look for a warming trend going into the weekend, a bit of a cool-down on Sunday, followed by another warming trend going into next week.

Basically, this forecast cycle is one in which the primary issue is temperatures as moisture is very limited and our rain chances are in the slim to none category.

Speaking of rain chances, we continue to monitor a rather stout upper-level system that will be moving across the state Sunday. Despite the robust appearance aloft, the data runs continue to suggest it will be moisture starved. However, the system is currently in the Pacific and has not been sampled yet by our land-based observational network. So, we are maintaining just a slight chance of some light rain or sprinkles until we get a better handle on it.

In fact, as you can see on the 7-day QPF outlook, that particular product has removed any measurable precipitation for us through that forecast period.

The Sunday system will have a surface wind shift associated with it, and the northerly winds behind the boundary will knock temperatures down for Sunday afternoon, but only back to more seasonal levels. This is primarily a Pacific system and, as mentioned earlier, there remains no connection to any really cold air coming our way anytime soon.

Between now and then, look for some additional moderation in temperatures, particularly at night, as our winds return to a southerly direction. As you can see on our forecast page, temperatures are expected to be well above normal going into the weekend and again for much of next week.

Given the lack of any major air mass changes during that time period, the amount of cloud cover on any given day or night will be the more significant determinant of temperature. Having said that, there will be a mix of sun and clouds in the days ahead, but more sun than clouds will be the general rule with the exception of Sunday.

Looking even further down the road, the 8-14-day outlooks continue to suggest temperatures will average above normal during that time frame. The outlook also suggests a more unsettled pattern with periodic chances of rain which would be largely due to Pacific type systems moving from W-E across the US, any one of which could potentially amplify and bring a decent shot of moisture. But, will not get too excited about those prospects just yet.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot