Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Weather Settling Down Before Colder Weekend

That was quite a storm system that has impacted our weather over the last two days. Notice the total rainfall over that time frame and obviously most of the state received a good soaking, with the bulk of the rains here in Green Country. Officially, for Tulsa, the airport recorded 1.28” just for today, which is a record for this date, and puts us more than an inch above normal in that category.

Interestingly, the high for the day will go down in the record books as 70, but that occurred around 4 a.m., and the best we could do this afternoon, despite some sunshine, has been around 60 or 61.

Also, yesterday and last night, the high plains had what may turn out to be a record number of tornadoes for this time of year as the preliminary total now stands at 42. Notice the image of yesterday’s severe weather reports. Notice also the maximum winds recorded for today across the state, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Fortunately, the storms were weakening as they moved into Green Country and the severe weather threat diminished, although the heavier rains did produce some localized drainage issues.

We are now on the backside of the storm system and will keep a good bit of wrap around cloud cover for the overnight hours and to start the day Wednesday. That will impede the ability to view the Leonid meteor shower that is scheduled for after midnight tonight.

The clouds, together with a brisk SW wind, will also keep temperatures in the 40s tonight and then lots of sunshine by afternoon should bring us back to at the low-mid 60s for an afternoon high.

After that, a wind shift line will arrive Wed night followed by brisk northerly winds which will make for a cooler day on Thursday, then, briefly back to a SE wind on Friday and somewhat warmer conditions; but an even stronger system will arrive that night, followed by gusty northerly winds and colder conditions for Saturday.

As you can see on our forecast page, this system will likely bring with it the coldest air of the season. We are expecting what should be the first ‘official’ freeze for Tulsa, and freezing temperatures, possibly even a hard freeze, across the entire area by Sunday morning.

Early next week will see a return to southerly winds and a warm-up, which now looks to extend into Thanksgiving Day. The longer range guidance has not been overly consistent going into Thanksgiving Day itself, but, as you can see on the next two graphics, there does appear to be at least a chance of showers.

Those two graphics reflect a solution from the European forecast model and one from the GFS forecast model. Both solutions have at least a light QPF footprint here in Green Country and the GFS would even suggest the potential for storms.

Not about to place any bets on that happening just yet, as the system that would be responsible for the unsettled weather is still way out in the Pacific. It will be several more days before we get a more consistent solution, so am just using these graphics to point out the preliminary indications.

Obviously, will keep a close eye on those developments in the days ahead so stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot