Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Frost/Freeze Tonight; Unsettled Weather On The Way

The cooler and drier air in place today, together with light winds and clear skies for the overnight hours will result in temperatures at or below the freezing mark for Friday morning. As a result, a freeze warning has been issued for the more northern counties, but don’t be surprised if temperatures briefly drop to the freezing mark in the normally colder valleys most anywhere in Green Country.

Even where the temperature does not drop below freezing, frost is possible, so tender plants will require protection tonight.

After the cold start, sunny skies and light southerly winds for Friday afternoon should bring our daytime highs back into the low-mid 60s or just above normal for many locations. Friday night will also have fair skies and a light southerly wind, setting the stage for some beautiful football weather that evening and early night.

Saturday morning will also start off clear and cold, but stronger southerly winds and partly cloudy skies are expected by that afternoon. As you can see on our forecast page, those stronger southerly winds will continue that night and will keep Sunday morning much warmer but the cloudy skies will also provide a lid on the afternoon warming.

The stronger southerly winds and the increasing clouds will be in response to the next storm system that will be coming our way and it looks to be a two part system. The first surge of energy will arrive during the day Sunday with rain and showers becoming more likely that evening and overnight and should taper off a bit on Monday.

The main storm center then looks to arrive during the day Tuesday, and the longer range guidance is in remarkably good agreement through that time frame. This looks to be a very strong system with the potential for storms and locally heavy rains. In fact, from the 7-day QPF map, you can see the rainfall potential, and notice that the axis of those heavier rains has shifted further west as compared to what we were seeing yesterday and was shown in yesterday’s blog.

Some further adjustments will likely be made in the days ahead with subsequent model runs, but the bottom line is that the Sun-Tue time frame will be characterized by a very unsettled weather pattern and Tuesday looks to be the main event.

After that, the longer range guidance starts to diverge with the European model, becoming more progressive and moving everything on eastward, and the GFS model taking a much slower approach. For now, figure the truth will be somewhere between, so will hold onto at least a chance of lingering precipitation into the day Wednesday.

In either event, Wednesday and Thursday will see a return to colder conditions on the back side of the exiting storm system.

That looks to be followed by the coldest air of the season moving in for that following weekend.

Looking further down the road, the 8-14-day outlook, which will include the days up to and including Thanksgiving, should see temperatures averaging near to slightly below normal, and still a potentially active precipitation pattern; will keep a close eye on those developments in the days ahead.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot