Once again, the max/min temperature map indicates much warmer than normal conditions for today, with afternoon highs well into the 80s. For example, the high today in Tulsa was 88 and normal for this date is 78. For the month as a whole, temperatures are running more than 3 degrees above normal up to this point.
At least we do have cooler, more fall-like weather on the way to end the month, and that will persist on through the coming weekend.
A light northerly wind today will be replaced by somewhat stronger northerly winds tonight and for much of the day Wednesday. Together with more cloud cover, that should hold daytime temperatures closer to normal, which will then be followed by cooler than normal conditions for the rest of the week, as you can see on our forecast page.
Unfortunately, this transition will not be accompanied by much in the way of rainfall. Cannot rule out a few isolated showers, primarily for the far western counties for Wednesday, and another system will be affecting the state for the weekend, but the guidance that has been coming in today has trended drier for E OK and is keeping most of the rainfall over the far western counties and further north into KS.
Notice the 7-day QPF map, for example, which has E OK basically high and dry. By the way, in case you have travel plans, the potentially heavy rainfall along the east coast is an anticipated impact from what is now TS Joaquin, which will likely become a hurricane in the coming days.
Although our weather will not be directly impacted by Joaquin, the circulation around it, together with the cool front moving through the state, will keep us with N to NE winds through the coming weekend. That, in turn, will help provide the cooler conditions in the days ahead with below normal temperatures for a change.
By early next week, a return to a more southerly wind will start to warm things back up. Also, another system in the flow aloft will bring a chance of rain by mid-week. Given the lack of run to run and model to model consistency over the last few days, am a little reluctant to get too carried away with the rainfall chances that far out; but we could certainly use a good rain as it is getting rather dry, as you can see on the 7-day and 30-day rainfall maps, courtesy of the OK Mesonet.
So, we will finally see weather that is more typical of the fall season in the coming days, but our rain chances continue to be on the low side. That is certainly subject to change with subsequent data runs, so stay tuned and check back for updates.