Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Warm With Cold Front On The Way

Thursday, September 17th 2015, 4:09 am
By: Alan Crone

Our main issues involve the timing of the Friday night cold front and the coverage of shower and thunderstorm activity with this system.   Another system will near the area Sunday with some rain chances.   Temperatures should move into the upper 80s and lower 90s today along with gusty south winds and increasing humidity levels.   We anticipate a nice cool down for the weekend with fall-like readings for many spots across the northern and eastern sections of the state.    Once the Sunday system exits the area, a mid-level ridge of high pressure will be close enough to keep most, it not all of next week, dry and mild. 

Temperatures this morning and tomorrow morning will remain in the lower to mid-70s due to the influx of higher dew point temperatures across the region.   Early this week we had lower 50s readings but today will see upper 60s and lower 70 degree dew points spread across part of eastern OK.   Daytime highs in the lower 90s near the metro will result in temperature heat index values nearing the upper 90s or even 100 for a few spots.   South winds in the 10 to 25 mph range will continue until the front nears the area Friday evening.

The latest and greatest data support the surface front entering northwestern OK Friday afternoon.   The front may not clear the Tulsa metro until sometime between 10pm and 1am, but some showers and storms may occur slightly ahead of the boundary by the early evening hours.   This creates a little controversy in the time-line.   I was hoping to offer a decent estimated time of arrival for this system but its still “iffy” at this point.   I’ll go with a chance of storms nearing the northwestern sections of the I-44 region ( northwest of Tulsa) by 6pm to 9pm Friday, and then moving southeast by 10pm to 2am over the metro.   This could impact some but not all Friday night football games.   The actual front would be located near a McAlester to Ft. Smith line by sunrise Saturday. 

As stated here yesterday, we may need to lower the pops for part of the area for this system, mainly for areas south of the metro.   As the mid-level forcing for this system ejects rapidly eastward from the central plains early Saturday morning, the precipitation along and behind the boundary may come to a screeching end due to the lack of significant forcing.  

Saturday late morning to afternoon weather should be great with highs in the upper 70s north and a few lower 80s south.   Northeast winds at 10 to 20 mph will be likely.

Saturday evening into Sunday morning another fast moving disturbance should slide across the central plains states.   Our surface boundary will slowly lift northeast and rain will develop on the cool side (north side) of this retreating front.   The exact position of the rain will depend on the exact resting place of the front Saturday.   But at this point, we’re continuing to offer a decent shot of rain-storms for part of the rea Sunday along with clouds and highs in the lower 70s.   The GFS and EURO have differing solutions for the system, with the EURO offering the “wettest” one for northern OK.   Once the disturbance moves eastward by Sunday night, the rain comes to an end and the front either becomes diffuse or lifts northeast away from the area.   This will leave most of Monday and next week dry and mild.

Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussions and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone