Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Warm And Muggy Weekend Ahead

Friday, September 4th 2015, 4:00 am
By: Alan Crone

Temperatures remain in the upper 60s and a few lower 70s again this morning along with mostly clear sky and light south winds.   Our main forecast trend of warm and muggy conditions will continue for the weekend.   A few isolated showers or storms will be possible, but mainly across extreme southeastern OK and western Arkansas today and into this weekend.   Monday, Labor Day, a few storms will be possible along the OK and Kansas state line area as a pattern change begins to occur across the nation.   A cold front will eventually move southward with increasing storm chances for the middle of the week.   A decent cool down is also expected by late next week that will drop temperatures from the mid-90s to the lower and mid-80s.

The main forecast challenge revolves around the timing of the system and how warm we could get Monday and Tuesday before the front arrives.

The data this morning continues to suggest the main mid-level ridge of high pressure will reside near and west of the area.   A slight increase in low and mid-level moisture is forecast to occur later today and this weekend with south winds transporting moisture across east TX into southeastern OK.   A few isolated showers or storms will be possible today, and more so this weekend, across part of eastern OK and western Arkansas.   The favored locations would include places like Latimer, LeFlore, McCurtain, Sequoyah, and Delaware counties eastward into western Arkansas.   Some data also suggest a slight increase in storm chances around the Texoma region, more specifically, around the Lake Texoma region.   We’ll not include a mention for isolated storms in the Tulsa metro for today or the weekend.

Temperatures this weekend should start in the lower 70s along with south winds around 10 mph.   A mix of sun and clouds will be likely along with afternoon highs in the lower to mid-90s.  

The data continues to suggest slightly warmer daytime highs for Sunday and Monday compared to our ongoing forecast.   We have kept the highs in the 93 to 95 range for this period in past updates, but may eventually need slightly higher temps for Monday afternoon.    The major pattern change is still expected next week, but the timing of the surface boundary remains fluid.   This means the “real front” probably doesn’t arrive until Wednesday night or Thursday, but a few storms will be likely along the OK-Kansas state line area Sunday night into Monday morning.   An outflow boundary (rush of cooler air) will float southward into the state Monday morning with a few showers and storms.   The real front will arrive Wednesday into Thursday, but the storm chances will slowly increase during this period.   Our probability will remain highest for Wednesday night into Thursday morning as the front moves across the area.   The air-mass behind the boundary is a modified Canadian air-mass and should drop the temps from the mid-90s early next week into the 80s for Thursday and Friday.   This cooler air should stick around next weekend, and possibly for most of the following week.

Friday Night Football starts tonight across the state.   Games will be warm, of course, to start the year.  

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog!

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone