If you liked today, then you will be real pleased with the forecast as we are in a stagnant weather pattern that will likely persist through the coming weekend. If not, then you will just have to put up with some very summer-like conditions through Labor Day, and perhaps beyond. At least no triple digits are foreseen, although heat index values may reach the upper 90s to near 100 in the days ahead.
As you can see on the max/min temperature map for today, NE OK was the relative cool spot with upper 80s to low 90s this afternoon. To keep things in perspective, our normal temperature range for Tulsa is 90/68 at this time of year and today we were 92/72. By the end of the month, the normal range drops to 78/56 for the max/min and we lose more than an hour’s worth of possible sunshine, so this is definitely a transition month.
The ridge of high pressure aloft located just west of us will begin to break down as we head into next week, but between now and then there will be little day to day change. For Tulsa, that means low-mid 90s during the day through Labor Day and morning lows in the lower 70s.
Outlying, more rural locations will likely be a bit cooler, particularly at night with mostly 60s to near 70 under fair skies and with light winds. That also translates into heavy morning dew and possibly even some patchy early morning fog.
Lots of sunshine each day, with only a few high clouds and a few of the fair weather cumulus clouds, are expected - much like today. Cannot completely rule out an isolated shower/storm over the more terrain favored locations of E OK and Arkansas, but the chances even there are quite low.
Those light southerly winds overnight will pick up to around 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to 20 mph or more during the day.
As you can see on our forecast page, the pattern will begin to break down over Labor Day with a slight chance of showers/storms, but better chances are expected as the week wears on. Also, the extra cloud cover along with a chance of rain will knock daytime temperatures down somewhat.
Beyond that time frame, there are hints of even milder conditions coming our way, as you can see on the 8-14-day outlooks. Hopefully, this will also verify with respect to an increased chance of rainfall as things are drying out, particularly in the more SE counties.
Notice the percent of normal rainfall for the summer months, which shows that some locations there in SE OK have received less than 60% of their normal rainfall through the summer, and most of that deficit has occurred over the course of the last 30 days or so. The 7-day QPF map is not overly optimistic for that part of the state, but at least the trends beyond that 7-day period do provide at least some hope.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.