As expected, today got the month of September off to a warm start. For example, the max/min here in Tulsa for today was 91/72 as compared to the normal of 90/68. From an examination of the statewide max/min temperature map, it is obvious that the morning low in Tulsa was much warmer than surrounding locations. That is due to the urban heat island effect in which the concrete and asphalt in the urban center simply does not cool as much, nor as quickly, as the rural locations.
At any rate, the weather pattern is currently dominated by high pressure aloft centered just west of the state which will keep us rather stable for the rest of the week. The extreme eastern counties are far enough removed from the ridge aloft to support one or two isolated showers/storms on any given day, but even there the chances are quite small. In other words, as you can see on our forecast page, we have basically a dry forecast through the Labor Day Weekend.
Also, temperatures will be generally running a bit above normal, much like today was, with overnight lows in the upper 60s to near 70 and daytime highs running from the upper 80s into the lower 90s. There will also be just enough moisture in the air with dew point temperatures also in the mid-upper 60s for the heat index to make it feel like it is another 3-6 degrees above the actual air temperature.
Southerly winds will be very light during the overnight hours and up to 10-15 mph during the day and will maintain these general conditions through this coming Sunday. We will also have generally fair overnight skies and partly cloudy skies during the day.
By Labor Day itself, some changes aloft will be taking place, allowing a frontal boundary to approach. Currently, it appears that the boundary will be rather weak and not really arriving till perhaps on Tuesday, but as these changes occur, there could be a few showers/storms for Labor Day itself.
Tuesday looks to have the better chance at this time, but there remains considerable uncertainty regarding the strength and timing of this particular system. As you can see on the 7-day QPF map, at least there is a chance for some rain, and that will most likely occur late in the forecast cycle.
After that, the 8-14-day outlooks suggest temperatures still running at or perhaps a bit above normal across the state which all adds up to a warm start to the month of September. The 8-14-day precipitation outlook, however, does at least suggest a decent chance of rain during that period - rainfall that is certainly needed, particularly for the more southern counties.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.