Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Chance For Thunderstorms As Heat Returns

Once again we're in the running for some thunderstorms for part, but not all, of the area.   A complex of storms will be nearing northern OK early this morning as it moves southeast.  The best chance for storms will remain across southeastern Kansas and extreme northeastern OK, but we’ll keep a mention for the metro for the day.  There will remain an outside chance that this complex may grow into a larger complex as it expands southeast this morning.   I'm posting this discussion at 3AM and this disturbance is located around Hayes Kansas moving southeast.    A weak surface boundary will be near northern OK this afternoon and evening as yet another disturbance approaches the Missouri Valley in the northwest flow aloft.   Storms are likely to develop across part of Eastern Kansas into Missouri and will become severe as they expand into part of Arkansas.   There will also remain a second chance for a few storms to form across northern OK later this afternoon after the 3pm hour or so.   If they do, they could be severe weather hail and wind the main issue.   A layer of warm air aloft to our southwest may inhibit or limit the coverage of storms to a small area of northeastern OK.   We'll not really know the specifics until we see how strong the CAP may be later today.   Unfortunately, it's a wait and see proposition.

WARN Interactive Radar

What happens this afternoon and evening has a big role in what may happen Thursday and even Friday.   If the front can sneak into northeastern OK later today and we experience some storms, this boundary may reside near northeastern OK Thursday and possibly even Friday.   This would mean we would need a small chance for storms in the eastern sections of the state.   If very little thunderstorm activity occurs later this afternoon and the boundary resides northeast of the area, we'll keep our forecast dry and hot.   I'll remind you that earlier this week we did have a chance for a few storms in the forecast Thursday and Friday.   We may need to re-enter a small pop for Thursday and Friday east of the metro, but of now, will keep it only near a 10 to 20% chance for the far eastern sections.

Weather Alerts

The data continue to suggest the mid-level ridge will grow and bring the heat back to the state for the weekend.   Morning lows in the upper 70s and lower 80s this weekend will be followed by highs in the upper 90s.   We may even see our first official 100 of the year from Tulsa International Airport either this weekend.   Regardless the temperature heat index values will be from 105 to 110 Thursday through early next week and heat advisories will eventually be issued for part of eastern OK due to the combination of the expected temperature and humidity impacts.

The data suggest a front will enter the state early next week and move southward into OK Tuesday.    This is highly unlikely for early August but both EURO and GFS data support this solution.   We’ll bring a wind shift into the area and knock the temps down a degree or two early next week.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and  blog

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone
KOTV