Rain Chances Soon

Monday, August 3rd 2015, 3:56 am
By: Alan Crone

Good morning.    First up:   Thanks to Mike Grogan for handling the morning weather duties this past week as I enjoyed some time with my family.   Now it's back to work and back to hot air today before some storm chances arrive soon.   This morning we’re watching some showers and storms across the western part of the state.  These should remain west of our area today, but we’ll see increasing chances for some showers and storms Tuesday across the northern half of Oklahoma into southeastern Kansas.

The mid-level ridge of high pressure is migrating westward for the next few days and this will allow a favorable upper air flow to bring a disturbance into the area Tuesday and Wednesday.   This wave will bring a chance for showers and storms to the area beginning Tuesday morning before ending Wednesday morning.    Another system will near the area Thursday and Friday with a low chance for some scattered showers and storms.   The exact coverage and timing of both systems will still change slightly between now and then, but the patter will support the chances for some precipitation for the week, more so Tuesday. The chance for severe weather is not zero but does appear rather low for both of these systems. 

The temperatures today will move back into the lower and mid 90s along with mostly to partly sunny conditions and south winds around 10 to 15 mph.   The lower humidity that we experienced this weekend will give way to locally higher surface dew points resulting in slightly higher temperature heat index values today compared to this weekend.

The net impact of both disturbances in the forecast this week should take the edge off the temp Tuesday but will not have a major impact for Thursday and Friday.   A surface front may cross part of northern OK Tuesday night into Wednesday bringing north winds for a few hours, but this boundary is not expected to survive.   Yesterday’s data supported another front nearing this weekend but this morning the data suggest the front will stay north of the state and our mid-level ridge of high pressure will build over the state.   This would bring the temps back into the upper 90s for the weekend. 

Highs today will reach the mid-90s.   Tuesday morning starts in the lower to mid-70s and ends in the mid to upper 80s north and the lower 90s south along with a chance of showers and storms.   Wednesday also has a chance for some early morning storms for northern OK and southern Kansas.  Lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s will be followed by highs in the mid-90s after the morning disturbance moves away from the area.   Thursday will also support the mid-90s with a slight chance of a few morning storms both Thursday and Friday.   The weekend now appears hot and mostly dry for most locations.

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone