Did you notice the slightly lower dew points and humidity values yesterday afternoon? Highs were in the mid 90s yesterday but heat index values remained a few degrees lower compared to the previous few days. I think we’re going to see another slight reduction in the numbers again today. The result will be slightly lower temperature heat index values compared to yesterday. It appears our heat advisory will not be required today even though some heat index values will move into the 100 to 104 range. The mid-level ridge of high pressure will continue to be the dominate feature for the next few days, but as posted here yesterday, I think the ridge will slowly weaken and slide southward early next week. This will allow a surface boundary to move into northern Oklahoma Monday. This boundary will stall near the northern third of the state and may remain near the highway 412 corridor region through Wednesday morning. Most data depict a small disturbance sliding across Kansas Tuesday and Wednesday. This will act to develop showers and storms near the boundary including near the Tulsa metro beginning Monday. We’ll only keep a 20% chance of scattered showers or storms across the northern part of the region Monday and Tuesday. EURO data (interpolated) yesterday indicated highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s. The last run is back to the warmer air. Regardless, I made some adjustments downward yesterday for the highs Monday and Tuesday and will keep them in the lower to mid-90s for this forecast cycle. Before all of this occurs, another small area of storms may slide into far northern OK and south-central Kansas tonight into Friday morning but would remain northwest of the eastern third of the state. A few storms may slide down the front side of the ridge and have a small impact across extreme southeastern Kansas or northwestern Arkansas. The odds for most of northeastern and eastern OK remain almost zero, but not quite.
Temperatures today will move back into the mid-90s along with sunshine and southwest winds around 10 to 20 mph. Lows in the mid to upper 70s will be followed by highs in the mid to upper 90s Friday through the weekend. We do anticipate low level moisture slowly increasing again by Saturday and Sunday. This will result in temperature heat index values also slowly increasing to near or above advisory levels. We’ll advertise some 105 to 108 heat index values for the weekend. Heat advisories would be required for some areas with these projections.
Monday and Tuesday will feature lows in the lower to mid-70s along with partly cloudy conditions. Highs Monday and Tuesday will stay in the lower to mid-90s. Winds will be variable in direction Tuesday, but mainly from the southwest Monday until the boundary passes by midday when an easterly or northeast wind would be experienced in northern OK in the 10 to 15 mph range. We’ll be nearing triple digits for the mid to end of next week. Right on schedule for late July and early August!
Thanks for reading the Thursday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a super great day!