Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Excessive Heat Warning

Tuesday, July 14th 2015, 3:59 am
By: Alan Crone

The heat index values yesterday afternoon exceeded the forecast by a few degrees in a few spots.   We were anticipating some 105 to 110 readings.   We had a few locations in the 110 to 112 range, including the Tulsa metro!   The readings are expected to remain very high again today.   Heat Advisories will remain for the central and eastern part of the state today.   Excessive heat warnings will also be issued as heat index values may exceed 110 in a few spots for a few hours this afternoon.  Actual temperatures will range from 95 in the east to near 99 in the metro.   A lighter south to southwest wind compared to yesterday will not help today.   Wind speeds around 8 to 15 mph will be likely.    We’re still anticipating the ridge to “hold” as the dominate feature for the southern plains, but the data does offer a few small chances for showers and storms along the Oklahoma and Kansas state line region.  Data suggest our mid-level ridge should weaken slightly Tuesday night and slide southward.   This may allow the above isolated storms to survive for a few hours to the north.   But the warm air aloft ( 10Kft) should suppress any significant chances for storms to survive a more southward migration into the area.

 A few storms will have a better chance of survival in southwestern Missouri into northwestern Arkansas Tuesday late into Wednesday morning.   We’re also seeing signals for a few isolated storms in the northwestern OK region Thursday night into Friday morning.  Data also suggest early next week may feature a few storms along the northern state line region.  All of these chances will remain extremely low and basically away from the majority of eastern OK including the Tulsa metro.

The data  does suggest our ridge shift  next week for a southward moving cold front to stall near northern OK Tuesday and Wednesday with a chance for some scattered storms.   This would lower the high a degree or two and bring some partly cloudy conditions into the region.   Unfortunately, we don’t see anything in the near term foreseeable future that will change the air-mass over the region.   The translation:  the very moist air-mass supporting high dew point temperatures and humidity will remain.   Our heat advisories/excessive warnings are expected to expire Tuesday night at 7pm from the previous issuance.   The heat index projection Wednesday may stay around 103 to 105 for most locations.  This would be just under the criteria for issuance, but the projections Thursday through the weekend are likely to trigger heat advisories or even excessive heat warnings for the region.   Remain aware of the heat, keep hydrated with water, take plenty of breaks if you must be outside during peak heating periods, and check on elderly friends and neighbors.   Also make sure your pets have plenty of cool water and shade if they must be outside.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a great afternoon!

Alan Crone