Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Hot Temps With Chance For Storms

Wednesday, July 1st 2015, 4:07 am
By: Alan Crone

Our main focus continues to be the upper air flow from the northwest and a surface boundary that will slowly move into the area by Thursday into Friday.   These features, combined with abundant low level moisture, will result in thunderstorm chances for the area.   Some storms may become strong to severe, especially Thursday afternoon and evening.    Temperatures will remain warm today and tomorrow before dropping below the normal average by the end of the week and continuing into the weekend.   The 4th of July extended holiday forecast will include a few storm chances including the possibility of a storm complex moving across part of Northeastern OK Sunday.   High temperatures this afternoon will move into the mid-90s along with temperature heat index values near 100 to 104.   We'll be approaching some heat advisory criteria in some locations this afternoon for a few hours.  

Temperatures are not as cool this morning compared to yesterday at this hour.  We're starting mainly in the mid to upper 70s this morning compared to some locations as much as 10 degrees cooler at this hour yesterday.   Even a few 80s are noted at this early hour.  Storms are noted across part of southwestern Missouri.   It's not impossible for a few showers or storms to drop into the area this morning but later today additional storms will be likely to develop across southeastern Kansas.   These may eventually develop into a small cluster of storms ( mesoscale convective system) and move southeast across part of eastern OK later this afternoon or tonight.   But the overall chance for storms this afternoon and early evening will continue to remain around 20 to 30% for most of northeastern OK.

Thursday morning the boundary may be already sliding southward into the state.   We'll not know for sure until we see how many storms develop later today along the front.   But Thursday morning may also produce another small area of storms across part of northern OK that would move southeast.   We'll also increase this pop slightly from yesterday's forecast package.   Temperatures would be in the lower 90s for daytime highs. 

The better chance for Thursday storms should occur by early afternoon.   Storms will develop along the boundary near northern OK by midday to afternoon as a short wave approaches the central plains.   These storms may eventually develop into a squall line or possibly another small cluster of storms and move southward across the region Thursday evening.   The main threat would appear to be damaging winds and some hail.   Pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall would also be likely for areas that do receive the storm activity.

Friday through the weekend will feature several time periods for thunderstorms across part of the region as the front will be positioned across the region along with the expected passage of several waves in the northwest flow pattern.   We don't think this will be a wash-out weekend but you'll need to remain aware of the forecast.   Some of the storms may become strong to severe with wind, hail, and heavy rainfall the main threat for some areas.   Temperatures are expected to drop into the mid and upper 80s for daytime highs due to the influence of the front and the expected increased cloud cover.   We are seeing more signals this morning for a possible storm complex also late Sunday morning.   We'll need to increase the chances from previous forecasts for the Sunday period from 30% to at least 40%.   This pop may continue to increase in subsequent update cycles.

This front should eventually lift northeast away from the area sometime Sunday night or Monday morning.   This will correspond with another pattern change as a mid-level ridge of high pressure will grow across the state bringing the hot air back to the region and ending the rain chances for most of next week.  A weak boundary may reside near the OK-KS state line area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with a slight chance for a few showers or storms during this time period next week. 

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day. 

Alan Crone