Before the tropical system arrives, we'll continue with a chance of showers and storms today due to a weak surface boundary combined with a weakening mid-level trough over the state. This boundary should retreat northward Wednesday and Thursday as the tropical system arrives. Temperatures are expected to remain in the lower 80s for the next few days with humid conditions.
Our forecast remains unchanged from yesterday regarding the trend. We have increased the probability Wednesday and Thursday to account for a higher confidence in the arrival of the Gulf system. This tropical storm will move northward later tonight and should reach the central TX region later early Wednesday morning as a tropical depression. I continue to stress that our forecast may continue to change depending upon the exact track of the system, but the consensus model output suggests our forecast trends remain good at this hour.
We'll see scattered showers and storms again today due to the tropical air-mass and uncapped atmosphere across the eastern third of the state. It will not take much lift to create some efficient rain-makers today. Similar to yesterday, some locations will receive rainfall while others will miss out. Low temps this morning in the lower 70s will move into the lower to mid-80s later this afternoon along with southeast winds around 10 mph. The higher chance for more widespread showers will hold off until later this afternoon, but a few scattered areas of showers will persist through the morning to midday hour.
WARN Interactive Radar
As the tropical low lifts northward into the region Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning our rain chances will remain high. We anticipate the period of Wednesday afternoon, evening, and early Thursday morning as the higher likelihood for heavy rainfall due to the system. Wind speeds are expected to increase as the surface low nears the region. South winds from 20 to 30 mph will be likely before changing from the northeast and northwest as the surface low ejects out of the region Thursday morning to midday. The winds will quickly subside as the low moves east of the state by Thursday midday to afternoon. As posted here yesterday, we'll continue to monitor the strength of the low, the possible helicity with the system, and the severe weather parameters near and east of the surface low. Sometimes these tropical systems can produce brief tornadoes.
Once the system clears the state, we'll see partly cloudy to partly sunny conditions late Thursday afternoon into Friday with improving weather. Humidity values will continue to be very high. The air-mass will remain intact across the region with high dew points and high humidity values. Daytime temps should move into the lower 90s this weekend along with south to southwest winds around 15 to 25 mph. A low chance of a few showers or storms will exist Sunday night into Monday morning along the Ok-Kansas state line region, but most locations will remain dry.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.
Have a great day!