Hitting 90 Soon

Thursday, June 4th 2015, 4:04 am
By: Alan Crone

The mid-level ridge of high pressure continues to be the dominate weather feature across the southern plains.  This means a continuation of warm and humid conditions for northern and eastern OK with highs nearing 90 today and this weekend.   South winds will continue to increase low level moisture in the form of upper 60 degree dew point temperatures.   Heat index values will move from 93 to near 97 this weekend.   The very active central plains northwest flow pattern more than likely stays slightly north of the state line.   We'll watch closely for any signs of weakness on the northern periphery of the ridge that may allow the central plains storm complexes to brush the state, but at this point, our storm chances remain near or less than 10% for the next few days.   The upper air pattern is expected to experience a change early next week that will bring active weather and storm chances back to the state.

The mid-level ridge of high pressure is expected to flatten and slide southwest sometime Monday and Tuesday.   This will occur in response to a vigorous short-wave that drops out of the high plains of Canada southeast into the Hudson Bay area.   As this occurs, a pattern shift will begin to take shape as the short-wave develops into a strong broad area of low pressure extending from Southeastern Canada into the upper Midwest.   Our mid-level ridge will be much weaker and positioned southwest of the state by Tuesday and Wednesday.   A surface boundary currently located across the central plains states will be slowly moving southward as these features become active.   This front will be nearing or passing northern OK sometime Tuesday with increasing storm chances and slightly lower temperatures.   GFS output would suggest the front aggressively moves southward Tuesday while the more consistent and trustworthy EURO brethren is slower.   We'll side with a compromise solution (which is usually inherently wrong) until the confidence in this time period increases.   We'll be increasing the pops slightly for early next week and eventually may have several days of storm chances next week but will ultimately depend upon how far the front progresses to the south. 

Temperatures for the next few days will range from the upper 60s to lower 70s for overnight lows.   Daytime highs from 89 to 92 will be likely.   Wind speeds will be around 10 to 22 mph today from the south.   Lower wind speeds from the south to southwest will be likely into the weekend.    The winds will change direction Monday night into Tuesday out of the east or northeast as the boundary slips southward across the region.

Thanks for reading the Wednesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone