The current trajectory of most data support higher coverage across the southern part of the state. We'll have some showers and storms near northern OK this afternoon and early tonight, but locations south of I-40 across far southeastern OK may be in the zone for the heaviest precipitation. Some storms may become severe across north TX and southern OK. The weather pattern will remain active for the entire week with additional storm chances in the forecast occasionally. As the end of the week nears, a stronger upper level system will approach with additional threats of strong to severe storms and unfortunately, more heavy rainfall.
WARN Interactive Radar
We're trying to dry-out a little this morning. Most of the flash flood warnings have expired. Areal flood advisories may be required for large areas of eastern OK due to the standing water in some locations. Most rivers are at flood and flood warnings are posted for these rivers for the next day or two. Due to the abundance of moisture in the atmosphere some patchy and dense fog has developed in some locations early this morning.
The upper air flow will remain from the southwest to northeast for most of the week. This will bring additional disturbances into the region including this afternoon and tonight. We'll have an increase in storms across southern OK later this afternoon and tonight. Our forecast will keep a better than average chance, even for the Tulsa metro. Any additional rain will cause an “up-tick" in flooding over saturated soils. This disturbance will exit the area later tonight and the storms will diminish late this evening. The highest chance for severe storms appears to be along the Red River Valley into North TX. But residents along the I-40 corridor would also be in the running. The best timing supports some storms nearing I-35 around 2 to 4pm and far southeastern OK around 5pm. Some rain and storms would be nearing the metro late this afternoon or early evening.
Tuesday should give us a break from most of the precip for most of the day, but we're seeing another disturbance nearing the area Tuesday night into Wednesday morning bringing another round of some scattered thunderstorms. This system should move away from the area during the first few hours of Wednesday. Again, some of the storms may be severe.
Thursday should be dry for most of the day time, but Friday into the weekend another slow moving upper level system will be nearing the area. A surface front and low pressure area will develop near the state and increasing storm chances will follow Friday into most Saturday and part of Sunday. We're observing hints in the model data of a mid-level trough forming and becoming cut-off from the upper flow over southern Kansas Friday into Saturday before leaving Sunday into Monday. This is not good. This would keep the rain chances high Friday through most of the weekend and heavy rainfall would be possible again over the state. Data does suggest the frontal passage would occur early Sunday bringing some drier conditions possibly for a day or two the following week. But the overall trend of active weather seems to be possible for the next several weeks until we see a major shift in the upper air pattern. This is not likely to occur yet.
Thanks for reading the Monday morning Memorial Day discussion and blog.
Have a super great day.