The exact positioning of this boundary is important. If the boundary ends up northward along the highway 412 corridor, we may see a few strong storms late Tuesday night into pre-dawn Wednesday morning. If the boundary remains south across part of south-central OK, our odds of strong or severe storms across northern OK will remain lower. Either solution will also create the potential for moderate to heavy rainfall in some locations for a few hours overnight across part of northeastern OK. I'll try to pinpoint a better location of the warm front later today and post some updates on Facebook and Twitter.
WARN Interactive Radar
The upper air flow will remain from the southwest. A disturbance will arrive near the state later this afternoon and tonight. A surface low develops across part of the high plains of Texas and our front to the south begins migrating northward as a warm front as this low dives south and moves across northern OK overnight. Showers and storms will break out ahead of this feature later this afternoon across southwestern and western OK. We'll more than likely remain dry for most of the morning to midday, but later this afternoon we'll a chance of showers and storms into the evening hours for rain and storms moving into the area.
The highest chance will remain from 9pm tonight into 9am Wednesday morning. Model output suggest from 1 to 1.5 inches of rain possible in some locations. Normally this amount of precip would be handled easily by our soils, creeks, and streams. But recent rainfall from 6 to 13 inches during the last 8 days will keep the flash flooding threat elevated Tuesday night into Wednesday morning for some locations. A flash flood watch may not be needed due to the short duration event, but some localized drainage issues will be possible for some folks.
The first short wave moves away from the area Wednesday. The front will move southward again Wednesday night into Thursday with northeast winds and relatively cooler air for a day. Thursday morning will start in the mid-50s and end in the upper 60s along with northeast winds.
Friday into the weekend another strong upper level system will approach in the southern stream. Storm chances will ramp back up Friday through the weekend with several chances for thunderstorms producing heavy rainfall and some severe possibilities. The exact timing and positioning of the features are yet to be known with any confidence but the overall pattern supports the increased storm chances along with pockets of moderate to heavy rainfall. Longer range date into the following week also supports more active weather including the potential for heavy rainfall and some severe storms. It appears our stormy pattern will last right into the first week or so of June.
Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather update and blog.
Have a super great day!