Showers/Storms Likely, Locally Heavy Rain Possible.

A very unsettled weather pattern will persist for the rest of this week and right on through the Mother's Day weekend. Widespread showers/storms have been affecting the western counties all day today and are slowly moving eastward. Notice the rainfall map for today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Once again, the western counties have received some badly needed rainfall, in some cases an inch or more. Also, a few spotty showers have developed late in the day for the eastern half of the state as well.

However, it is the activity to the west that is the main rain maker and it will continue to move slowly our way for the overnight and into the morning hours of Wednesday. Since this system is moving rather slowly, there will be the potential for some locally heavy rains, possibly extending into the morning commute time. As the day wears on, we should see a break by afternoon with possibly even some sunshine.

The cloudy skies and wet start to the day should also produce a rather short thermometer but not as much as occurred over W OK today. Notice the max/min temperature map for today where the more western counties were held into the 60s for daytime highs due to the rains that continued well into the afternoon hours. Not thinking that will be the case for our side of the state on Wednesday since most of our rain should be confined to the morning hours followed by the potential for some afternoon sunshine. Daytime highs should be in the mid-upper 70s which is pretty close to normal for this time of year.

But, as you can see on our forecast page, our nights will be much warmer than normal with morning lows in the 60s. The normal max/min temperatures for this time of year here in Tulsa is 77/56 for comparison.

As you can also see on our forecast page, there will be daily chances of showers/storms each day through the weekend. Given the active pattern we are in, there will also be at least a possibility for some storms to be severe with the weekend likely having the better chance as the main storm system aloft will be moving eastward during that time frame.

Between now and then, it looks like we may get a break with at least fewer showers/storms on Thursday before things get more active again through Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. These daily chances of showers and storms will also have the potential for locally heavy rains by the time it is all over with late Sunday or Sunday night. Notice the 5 day QPF map for example which is valid through this coming Sunday. If this verifies, there may well be some flooding issues by the time it is all said and done.

However, that should also be followed by a nice break with northerly winds, clearing skies, and somewhat milder conditions going into early next week.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot