Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Tracking Severe Storms Chances

(3:36am)

Storm chances remain in the region for the next 12 to 18 hours and some could become severe.   A strong storm system will impact the region today including a dynamic upper level wave, a strong surface low pressure system to our north and a dry line developing across western OK.   Gusty south winds and highs in the mid to upper 70s will be likely along with the chance of thunderstorms, including a few showers early this morning, and a chance for some afternoon or evening storms across part of eastern and northeastern OK.    While the threat for some severe weather remains with this system, the outcome of early to mid-morning storms to our south may have a direct influence on the afternoon and evening chances. 

This morning (pre-dawn) we're tracking an area of shower activity across part of northeastern OK moving northeast.   This has occurred as warm moist air is attempting to move northward combined with some mid-level forcing and the presence of increasing wind speeds located slightly off the surface of the earth.   The short term data supports these storms moving into southeastern Kansas and southwestern Missouri quickly this morning.   But additional showers and storms should develop to our south across part of north Texas this morning and move into southeastern OK during the next few hours.  Some of these may become strong as the morning progresses.   Part of this activity may reach near the Tulsa metro around or shortly after the noon hour.   Additional showers and storms are likely to develop across central and eastern TX by midday to early afternoon.   All of this activity to our south may be a complicating factor for possible afternoon thunderstorm development across northeastern OK later today.

The overall evaluation of the afternoon severe weather threat hinges on what happens this morning through midday across north TX and southern OK.  A dry line is expected to sharpen up across western OK this afternoon and move eastward later this evening as strong winds aloft influence part of the state.    Model data this morning is much slower with the eastward progression of the dry line.   The latest few runs of data are now developing storms west of I-35 later this afternoon.   As these storms move eastward at near 50 mph later today and tonight, the big question remains as to the state of the atmosphere ahead of the dry line due to the early morning convection.   If enough recovery takes place later this afternoon ahead of the dry line and behind the departing morning to midday showers and storms, these storms could be quite severe with all modes of severe weather possible.   If the atmosphere does not recovery, there's a small chance the storms would weaken as they move eastward by early evening.   We'll be in a “wait and see” mode later this afternoon as we begin checking local observations.    The higher chance for some air-mass recovery may be to the south.   This would support an increased threat of severe storms across the Texoma Red River Valley region, including part of southeastern OK.   Regardless, even in the northern sections of the state, we'll have our chances for some strong to severe storms remaining in the forecast. 

Please remain aware of your weather surroundings later today and be aware of potential changes in the forecast later today or tonight.

This system will be exiting northeastern and eastern OK late Friday night and early Saturday morning.   Saturday will feature southwest to west winds for the first part of the day at speeds in the 10 to 20 mph.   The westerly component of the wind combined with the expected sunshine and duration of solar radiation should allow daytime highs into the lower to mid-80s.  

Sunday another strong upper level system will rapidly drop down the northern stream and move closer to the southern plains by Monday and Tuesday.   This will cause yet another surface area of low pressure to quickly develop Sunday morning and afternoon while dropping southward across part of the western areas of north TX.   Showers and storms will be likely to develop Sunday evening as this system nears the state with additional thunderstorm development Monday.   The currently positioning of the mid-level low and surface features may support a higher chance of severe weather slightly south across southern OK and Texas.   It's too early to have confidence in the exact positioning of these features, and just like today's system, a number of factors could influence the exact outcome of any severe weather threats.    But at this point, most of northern OK should remain on the cool side of the Sunday night and Monday system.

After this system moves away from the state Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, the pattern may (should) give us a break with mid-level ridging for the rest of the week.   This would help to dry us out and offer mild spring weather from next Thursday through next Saturday.  

Thanks for reading the Friday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a safe day.

Alan Crone

KOTV