Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Break From The Rain

Monday, April 20th 2015, 4:23 am
By: Alan Crone

The main upper level system that has been plaguing the area with storm chances for the past 4 days has now lifted to the northeast of the area.   We'll get a one day break today from precipitation before a weak upper level disturbance brings a few showers or storms across the area Tuesday.    These are not expected to be severe across eastern OK.    A stronger system will be nearing the area Wednesday with some strong to severe thunderstorm potential.  The active weather pattern may return late in the week.

The cold front moved across the area late last night with strong north winds and drier air moving into the state.   The showers and storms, some of which were severe, moved out of Oklahoma by early evening.    A surface ridge of high pressure will build into the area this morning and afternoon allowing for sunshine, north winds, and highs in the 60s.   The upper level flow will bring a weak disturbance over the state Tuesday, including the early morning to midday period, with a shot of some showers or storms across the region.   Temperatures Tuesday will stay in the 40s for lows and mid-60s for afternoon highs.

The Tuesday system is not exactly robust and the model output hasn't boosted our confidence on the placement and expectation of precipitation.   We'll keep the 20 pop for Tuesday, and may need to refine the placement or even increase the chances slightly for Tuesday. 

Wednesday into Thursday another upper level wave will approach the area from the west.   A surface area of low pressure is expected to develop across the high plains of Texas with a front elongated across southern Kansas with a dry line developing across far western OK.   Scattered showers and storms will be on the increase Wednesday with the approach of these features, and a few of the storms may become severe.

The front should cross the area Wednesday night into Thursday, but this boundary may not travel far from the state.   The front will remain to our south before lifting northward as a warm front Friday into the weekend with unsettled weather and chances for some thunderstorm activity into Friday.    Saturday looks good at this point, and we may have a small pop for Sunday.  

Thanks for reading the Monday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone