We've weathered our first few rounds of dangerous and destructive weather of the season, but we're just getting started. The week to come has several days where the ingredients are in place for severe thunderstorms.
Just this afternoon, the sun has finally emerged and temperatures are climbing. This warming trend, fed by strong, southerly low-level winds also corresponds to a big return of moisture. The result is that muggy feel that we often feel on days when storms threaten.
Our first sizable threat of severe weather comes Tuesday evening. The CAP, or warm air aloft, is quite prevalent, which limits when and how many storms can form. Significant warming at the surface needs to happen to overcome the CAP. Where it most likely occurs will be along a dryline in west-central Oklahoma. Whatever can hold together could slide into Green Country with a severe weather threat.
Wednesday poses a larger threat for severe weather as the main low pressure system pulls out of the west into the Plains. That means there is a much larger trigger for storms by late afternoon. The warm, moist, unstable air mass will still be in place with wind shear. Despite the CAP, it continues to look like a classic set-up for isolated to widely scattered supercells that may produce very large hail, high winds and a few tornadoes. The attached map shows the Storm Prediction Center's risk area for that day.
The system won't clear the region likely until late on Thursday, so one more round of severe weather are possible Thursday afternoon with similar ingredients in place for storm formation. The threat may end up just east of Tulsa as this system appears to be moving a bit faster.
Friday into Saturday will be a reprieve from this active weather with pleasant springtime temperatures. But, you guessed it, more storms may be back as early as next Sunday! ‘Tia the season
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