A Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued valid till 10 p.m. this evening for far E and SE OK and on eastward from there. What is unique about this particular situation is that, here we are one week from the end of March and this is only severe thunderstorm watch #5; in other words this has been a very inactive severe weather year for the entire country so far.
Of course, that can change in a hurry as we get further into spring and, in fact, another round of potentially severe weather is a good bet for Wednesday.
A weak frontal boundary/dry line has moved into E OK this afternoon and is setting the stage for the storms this evening into the early night time hours. That boundary will weaken further and become diffuse overnight as our winds shift from light northerly early tonight to a more SE direction by morning.
Gusty southerly winds will quickly return during the day Wednesday in advance of a much stronger cold front that will be pushing across the state by Wednesday afternoon and evening. Showers/storms will become widespread along and behind this boundary so you can pretty much count on getting wet through the afternoon and early night.
As mentioned, some of those storms will also pose a threat of severe weather - primarily wind and hail - although an isolated tornado cannot be ruled out given the strong dynamics.
The gusty southerly winds on Wednesday will also produce another day of spring-like temperatures with daytime highs reaching well into the 70s.
After that, gusty northerly winds for Thursday will bring much cooler conditions back into the state with morning lows in the lower 40s and daytime highs only in the 50s. Clouds may prevent temperatures from totally bottoming out for the Fri and Sat morning time period, but morning lows in the 30s are generally anticipated along with the potential for frost or a light freeze in the more protected valleys.
Friday afternoon will also be in the 50s, but a return to southerly winds and lots of afternoon sunshine should get us back into the 60s on Saturday and low 70s look possible for Sunday.
Our nights will also be gradually getting warmer. After Wednesday, the pattern looks relatively quiet going through the weekend, although we may see some showers/storms again for the early part of the following week.
So, an early taste of spring today and again tomorrow followed by a significant cool-down and then another rebound; in other words, fairly typical early spring weather.
Looking further down the road, the outlook for the 6-10 day time period shows a warm, dry signal for our part of the country and the 8-14 day outlook shows a near normal, potentially more unsettled time period.
In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.