Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Cool, Wet Wednesday

Tuesday, March 17th 2015, 6:14 pm
By: News On 6

Notice the 24 hour temperature change map from mid-afternoon, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. That cold front, which arrived pretty much on time this morning, has certainly made a big difference from the spring-like conditions of yesterday.

The second map shows the same thing only on a national scale. Dozens of high temperature records were set Monday across the Central Plains and those same locations are 40+ degrees colder today; notice Nebraska for example.

Anyway, now that cooler air is in place a disturbance aloft, moving over Northern Mexico, will be spreading widespread rain and showers our way later tonight and through much of the day Wednesday. The presence of clouds, a brisk E wind, and the intermittent rain and showers will result in a short thermometer for tomorrow. Morning lows will be in the 40s, but daytime highs only in the upper 40s to lower 50s.

Count on a wet start to the day as the rain should be falling before the sun comes up but there should be some breaks to the showers by afternoon and into the evening hours. Thus the chances of your getting wet will be near 100% to start the day but are expected to be dropping to the 30-40% range by afternoon.

Thursday should start off cloudy and dry, but another system aloft will be spreading another round of rain and showers our way later in the day, through the overnight hours, and to start the day Friday. That system should also be moving on eastward with the showers ending in time for a relatively nice Friday afternoon and the first day of spring according to the calendar.

Lots of residual moisture will linger right on through the weekend suggesting, at the very least, partly cloudy skies. But, the longer range guidance has not been very consistent from run to run nor model to model over the course of the last few cycles. The most consistent has been the Euro, so am basing the weekend forecast and into next week primarily on its guidance.

With that in mind, will keep the weekend dry, even though the GFS would suggest otherwise; also the Euro suggests another round of showers late Monday and into the day Tuesday. As you look at our forecast page, keep in mind that those days have lower confidence than usual due to the higher degree of uncertainty.

With the potential for several more rounds of showers in the days ahead, how much rain is the next question. The 7 day QPF map suggests another inch or so certainly possible for much of this side of the state.

At least, temperatures will be relatively mild with no real cold air currently foreseen. That is not to say that we are out of the woods regarding any more cold air this season; not by a long shot. Keep in mind that our normal last freeze date is Mar 29 and that is still nearly 2 weeks away.

In the meantime, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot