Alan Crone's Weather Blog: Rain In Forecast Tuesday Evening & Wednesday

Tuesday, March 17th 2015, 4:24 am
By: Alan Crone

Rain will move back into the area later tonight, overnight, and into Wednesday morning as an upper level system passes near the area.   Temperatures today will be in the mid-60s north and lower 70s south with increasing clouds and strong northeast winds.   Temperatures will drop into the upper 50s and lower 60s northern OK by late this afternoon.   Another disturbance will near the area Thursday into Friday with rain chances in the forecast.

The upper air flow is dominated by a large trough anchored across northeastern Canada with the polar jet well removed from the southern and central plains.   The southern stream has featured a “cut-off low" near Baja for the past few days.  This low is in the process of ejecting northeast but will be weakening as it moves in our direction.  A surface cold front is moving southward this morning across Northern OK and will move through southern sections of the state by midday to afternoon.   Mostly cloudy and windy conditions will remain post-frontal with highs today in the lower to mid-60s north and lower 70s south.  Temperatures will be dropping later this afternoon into the upper 50s and lower 60s north.   A lead disturbance could produce a few sprinkles or showers as early as this afternoon, but the chance remains low.   This front will reside south of the Red River tonight and move slowly northwest Wednesday morning in response to the approaching but weakening upper level disturbance.   The result will be widespread showers and areas of rainfall developing across southwestern OK and moving northeast later tonight into Wednesday.  No severe weather will be expected with this system.   A few areas of southern and far east-central OK may experience some .75 to 1 inch rainfall with this system.   Due to the recent rainfall, some localized drainage issues may result in a few spots by Wednesday morning to midday.   Temperatures Wednesday will remain around 50 for the day with rain-cooled air and north winds.   

WARN Interactive Radar

Thursday into Friday another mid-level wave will advance near the area, but this disturbance will drop from the northwest as the northern stream migrates slightly southward into the central and northern plains states.   As this short-wave nears the state, another surface area of low pressure should develop across Eastern New Mexico or Western areas of North TX.   The low will traverse southeast away from the state, but an area of rain will be possible Thursday and Friday near the area according to the last few runs of the NAM.    Temperatures for this period will remain cool with lows in the 40s and highs Thursday in the mid to upper 50s and Fridays highs in the lower to mid-60s.     Weekend temperatures appear mild with lows in the 40s and highs in the upper 60s near 70.

Another system should be nearing the state either early next week or by midweek.   The upper air pattern will remain slightly from the northwest but should be transitioning to more of a southwesterly flow by next week.   The “pattern" would support warm air and the potential for thunderstorms sometime next week.   The exact day is rather nebulous on my part.   If the low level moisture can become deeper next week, we may be dealing with our first chance for a few severe storms, but model data does not indicate moisture will be sufficient or deep enough at this point for any confident statements.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!


I'll be taking a few days off for the end of this week.   Mike Grogan will be handling forecasting duties for the mornings for the remainder of the week.