It was a pleasant, spring-like day today with afternoon temperatures running 10-15 degrees above normal.
Notice the max/min temperature map for the day, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, for example. That will be changing on Tuesday as a cold front will be pushing across the state during the morning hours and shifting our winds back to the N/NE for the balance of the day.
The timing of the frontal passage will make a huge difference in temperatures for the rest of the day and is a real forecast challenge for any one particular location. Currently, it appears the winds will be shifting along the I-44 corridor around sunrise and the cold front will be quickly moving on southward during the rest of the day.
Ahead of the front, temperatures will be holding in the 50s for the morning hours and should reach the 70s before the cooler air arrives.
Behind the front, temperatures will still be relatively mild initially with most locations still in the lower 50s and some rebound will be possible before the really cool air arrives as the day wears on. Cloudy skies and a gusty NE wind of 15-25 mph will make it difficult for temperatures to moderate much though.
Bottom line is that the more northern counties will likely be warmer to start the day than they will be to end the day.
Then, there is Wednesday. A disturbance aloft has been spinning around over the southern Baja for several days now and all indications are that it will be ejecting to the NE. That is the source of the clouds we will see on Tuesday and it will spread widespread rains across much of the state on Wednesday.
Most of the energy and the greater instability will be along or south of the Red River which is where any storms may occur. For the rest of the state, cloudy skies, a brisk E wind, temperatures holding in the 40s for the most part, and a steady to intermittent rain will make for a rather dreary day.
That system will be ejecting on eastward but the system kicking it out will be moving over the state on Thursday keeping us cloudy with a chance of showers. The 3 day QPF map shows the rainfall potential through Thursday and some locations could receive an inch or more. Unfortunately, the locations that need it the most will receive the least.
After that, spring arrives on Friday and the weather looks promising for Friday going into the weekend as you can see on our forecast page. Another frontal boundary could produce a wind shift over the course of the weekend, but that does not appear to be a very strong system at this time.
Also, current indications suggest dry weather until early next week when we will introduce another chance of showers and perhaps some thunder.
So, stay tuned and check back for updates.