Springtime Today But Rain Soon

Monday, March 16th 2015, 4:15 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning.    Our weather will feature a robust warm-up today, a Tuesday morning cold front, and a Wednesday upper level system bringing more rain back to the area.    Another late week upper level wave may produce some Friday precipitation across northern OK with higher chances to the south.

Temperatures this afternoon are expected to out-perform yesterday's readings and should move to near 80 across the Tulsa metro.   Despite some recent rainfall, the combination of southwest surface winds and relatively dry conditions will promote an enhanced fire danger in a few locations along or northwest of the I-44 corridor.   A few morning clouds may continue for an hour or so, but mostly sunny and warm conditions are likely for most of the state today.

Tuesday morning a cold front will move across northern OK and clear the southeastern part of the state by late afternoon.   Gusty north winds in the range of 15 to 25 mph will be likely along with mostly cloudy conditions and highs in the mid to upper 60s.

Tuesday the southern stream cut-off low will begin to weaken as it becomes absorbed in the upper air flow.   A few weak disturbances will rotate around the Baja low and move northward across Texas and into Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday.   The Tuesday evening front will stall along the Red River and lift northward as a quasi-warm front into central OK.   These features will combine to produce a high likelihood of rain across the state, including portions of northern and southern OK early Wednesday into the afternoon.   The rain-cooled air will keep Wednesday temperatures quite chilly with morning lows in the 40s followed by afternoon highs around 50.

Thursday into Friday the northern stream will bring a short-wave into the central plains that will help to induce another surface area of low pressure across Eastern New Mexico and West Texas.   While the majority of the precipitation with this second wave will remain across southern OK and north Texas, our chances will remain for Thursday evening into Friday morning across part of northern OK.

Temperatures Friday will start in the lower 40s and end in the upper50s or lower 60s with mostly to partly cloudy conditions.    Saturday will feature improving weather conditions with sunshine and mild afternoon highs in the mid-60s.   Sunday's highs should move into the upper 60s.

The upper air pattern will be changing later next week.   Stay tuned.

Thanks for reading the Monday Morning weather discussion and blog.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV