Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Rains Ending Later Tonight

Friday, March 13th 2015, 8:10 pm
By: News On 6

Obviously, the western extent of the rain shield that was in question yesterday has certainly shifted far enough to the west to provide a wet day for the eastern half of the state.

Notice the 24 hour rainfall totals as of late this afternoon and, as was mentioned yesterday, there is a sharp gradient with very light totals on the western edge and some healthy totals for the far SE counties.

Of course, it is still raining as I write, so those numbers will continue to climb until the system moves on eastward later tonight and into the morning hours of Saturday.

Unfortunately, the locations that needed the rain the most received the least. Notice the Drought Monitor, which was updated yesterday, and our more western counties in particular continue to suffer with a lack of moisture. The moisture that we have received on the E side of the state will certainly help, but this is not a drought breaker.

However, as you can see on the 7 day QPF, we have another chance of rain during that time frame and that system should provide at least some badly needed moisture for the more western counties. This does not appear to be a drought breaker either, but at least it will help.

For the weekend, any lingering showers will be ending during the morning hours for the more eastern counties, but sunshine will be hard to come by. Northerly winds and the cloudy skies for most of the day will keep temperatures in the 60s.

Sunday is looking much better with lots of sunshine and a more S or SW surface wind. As a result, temperatures will be moderating nicely after starting the day near 40 we should make it to at least 70 that afternoon.

Monday will be the warmest day of this forecast cycle as we will be ahead of our next cool front that should be arriving that night.

Partly cloudy skies and S or SW winds ahead of the cool front will push our daytime temperatures well into the 70s. Some locations may even approach 80; although there are some indications there will be enough clouds to keep us in the 70s.

Tuesday will be much cooler with brisk northerly winds and daytime highs in the 60s. After that it gets interesting again, as you can see on our forecast page, there is a good chance of rain and showers for much of the day Wednesday.

The activity may start Tuesday night and may linger into the day Thursday and that is the reason for the more generous QPF values shown on the 7 day QPF map.

However, this is by no means a slam dunk. The system responsible for this next round of rain is now located over the southern Baja Peninsula in Old Mexico. The timing and intensity of the ejection of systems from that general area are notorious for creating forecast challenges. So for now, will call for a good chance of rain centered on this coming Wednesday, but that is certainly subject to change and the data runs over the next couple of days should help to reduce the uncertainty.

After that, the latter part of the week looks to be cooler and depending on the timing of the Baja system, there may be some lingering showers. At any rate, the calendar start of spring is one week from today and from this perspective, it appears temperatures will be at or perhaps a bit below normal by then.

So, stay tuned and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot