Dick Faurot Weather Blog: Coldest Of The Season Tonight Followed By A Warming Trend

One of the things about forecasting snow is there are always some surprises. One of the problems is that the amount of snow that falls, which can be roughly determined by having a reasonable idea of how much precipitable moisture is available, will not be the same as the amount of snow that accumulates. That is because of a number of other factors, not the least of which is soil temperatures and wind, among others. The event yesterday was fairly well forecast except for the band of snow that developed and moved along the I-40 corridor. Notice the visible satellite image from earlier in the day today along with the representative snow accumulation, courtesy of the good folks at our local NWS office. Since skies were clear, then what shows up as white will obviously be snow on the ground. Here in Tulsa, the ‘official' total came out to 0.4”.

The brisk northerly winds on the backside of the system today have kept temperatures from warming much and most locations have struggled to get above the freezing mark. Notice the max/min temperature map for today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. You may recall that on Monday of last week, we had a high of 79 degrees. Since then, the warmest we have been is the 43 degrees on that following Tuesday and if we are lucky we may just get that warm again tomorrow.

But, tonight will likely be the coldest of the season as the winds will quickly subside with the setting sun, clear skies will prevail, and cold air is already in place along with dew point temperatures in the low teens and even single digits. That means morning lows in the low-mid teens for most locations to start Tuesday morning.

By the way, in Tuesday's blog I will have an analysis and comparison of the historical significance of this cold spell we have endured this past week.

As mentioned, Tuesday afternoon should make it back into at least the lower 40s for the first time in a week and a gradual warming trend will then continue through the coming weekend. We will be near 50 on Wednesday and generally in the 50s after that. A return to southerly winds will help to moderate temperatures both at night as well as during the day with southerly winds of 10-15 by Tue PM and a stronger southerly breeze on Wednesday.

A weak front will arrive on Thursday but it will be primarily a wind shift and only knock a few degrees off temperatures. More cloud cover is expected by Friday along with a chance of showers, mainly for the more eastern counties followed by a stronger storm system in time for the coming weekend. Right now showers and possibly some thunderstorms look to be a good bet for Saturday possibly extending into the day Sunday. This system will be followed by a return to northerly winds and another cool-down for early next week. But, as we look further ahead to Thanksgiving Day, conditions right now look promising for a relatively quiet weather day along with seasonal temperatures.

So, stay tuned, stay warm, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot