Dick Faurot's Weather Blog: Not As Cold Saturday, Snow Likely Sunday

Once again, temperatures have struggled to warm up this afternoon despite a return to SE winds at the surface. Notice the max/min temperature map so far today, courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Those cold overnight temperatures contributed more hours to the total time below freezing we have experienced so far this week. That is shown on the second map, also courtesy of the OK Mesonet. Needless to say, this amount of time below freezing at this time of year is remarkable, if not unprecedented.

Temperatures will be moderating, if only briefly, for tonight and into the day Saturday with cloudy skies and a SE wind keeping us generally in the upper 20s to near 30 to start the day. A brisk S/SE wind throughout the day Saturday will overcome the overcast skies and should bring temperatures into the low-mid 40s. A storm system aloft will also be moving overhead producing the clouds, but most of its impact will be in KS where they will likely have some snow accumulation during the day Saturday. Here in NE OK, the temperature profile first thing in the morning may support a brief wintry mix along the OK/KS state line but anything after that would likely be just a few sprinkles so no problems are anticipated.

Sunday will be a different story altogether. A stronger system aloft will be directly impacting the state bringing a return to colder conditions at the surface and aloft. The vertical profile of temperature and moisture will support an all snow event but at the surface the air is still quite dry as the dew point temperature will be holding in the teens to near 20. Surface temperatures will start the day near freezing and if anything will drop into the upper 20s as the day wears on due to snow falling for much of the day. Gusty northerly winds will also contribute to the cold.

Given the dry air near the surface, the snow that falls on Sunday will likely be more of a powder and not the heavy, wet snows we often get. In addition to that, our soil temperatures are currently in the mid 40s for most locations. Bottom line is that the amount of snow that falls and the amount that actually accumulates will be very different. Also, the various guidance products are having difficulty coming to a consensus regarding snowfall amounts. For example, notice the two graphical representations which represent total snowfall from the GFS and NAM, respectively. Obviously, they are both showing accumulating snow, but one model suggests more than 6” for our more northern counties and the other has practically none in those same locations but as much as 3” for Tulsa.

In addition to that, there has been little run to run consistency in these guidance products as the earlier data runs were much less bullish on our snowfall potential. With the above in mind, our current forecast will call for snow to begin Sunday morning and end that evening or early night from W-E. The extreme southern counties will have a dusting to perhaps an inch or so and locations north of I-40 will likely be in the 1-2” category and possibly more along and north of I-44. As always, locally higher amounts can also be expected. Travel impacts should be minimal although slick spots on elevated surfaces will be a concern.

After that, just plain cold for Monday with temperatures struggling to get above freezing under bright, sunny skies but with a gusty N wind. Tuesday will start off very cold with light winds, clear skies, and teens pretty much across the board and another struggle to warm up that afternoon.

After that, we will finally start to moderate with 50s expected during the day by later in the week. Another, weaker storm system looks to be coming our way late in the week as well, but that will just be rain and only a slight chance of that the way things are looking now.

So, stay tuned, stay warm, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot