Drought Update. Dry Weather Through the Coming Weekend.

As mentioned in yesterday's blog, this year has been very dry for most of the state as the first map, courtesy of the OK Mesonet, clearly shows. In fact, for the official rain gauge maintained at the Tulsa airport, we are more than 10” below normal and so far this year ranks as the 9th driest on record. Those numbers have also affected the drought situation as the second map shows. Once again, or perhaps I should say still, much of the state is in a drought; a drought which began along about Oct 1 four years ago. Granted, there has been some occasional relief during that period, but drought has raised its ugly head more often than not over the last four years.

And, there is not much in the way of relief coming our way anytime soon. We remain in a very stable weather pattern through the coming weekend and into at least the first few days of the following week. The longer range guidance does suggest a more unsettled pattern coming our way along about the middle to latter part of next week, but the timing and intensity of that system has not been consistently handled to this point so lots of uncertainty in that regard. Notice the 7 day QPF map for example which does bring at least some rain our way, but it certainly does not appear to be a drought breaker; at least not so far.

At least the weather will be perfect for outdoor activities such as the State Fair or attending a high school football game. Notice the max/min temperature map for today which is not much different than what we had yesterday. About the only real change coming our way will be a slow warming trend. Our daytime highs will remain generally in the low-mid 80s along with lots of sunshine and light SE winds. At night is where the biggest change will take place as morning lows should be moderating into the upper 50s and perhaps the low 60s as we head into next week.

The above normal temperatures will also continue until the next weather system arrives along about the Wed/Thu time frame, but this does not appear to be a particularly strong system; at least not at this time. At any rate, that is when we should at least have a decent shot at some showers/storms, and at least somewhat of a cool-down. Again, the longer range guidance remains inconsistent regarding the timing and strength of this next system. So, for now will just go with a chance of showers/storms along with a slight break in the above normal temperature pattern. It may take several more data runs before we get a good handle on when and how much rain to expect and how much it may cool things off.

So, stay tuned, and check back for updates.

Dick Faurot