Storm Chances Tonight

Monday, September 1st 2014, 4:31 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning. We're tracking a few showers and storms this morning located across southern Kansas and extreme northern OK. Most, it not all, will remain along the state line. I'll keep a slight chance of a shower or storm brushing the northern OK areas from now through 8am this morning. Otherwise our forecast will focus on another chance for thunderstorms arriving later tonight into Tuesday morning as cold front slides southward. Afternoon highs in the mid-90s will be likely along with south winds around 15 to 30 mph. A few of the storms tonight could be severe.

Storm chances will ramp up this afternoon and evening from southwestern Missouri into southeastern Kansas before back building into northern OK this evening. A few of the storms tonight could be severe for a few hours before gradually weakening overnight into Tuesday morning. The cold front will slide into northern OK Tuesday morning before stalling and moving northward Tuesday afternoon or evening. Some additional showers or storms will be possible Tuesday afternoon and evening across far northern OK as the boundary begins lifting northward. The chance will remain low for the Tuesday night into Wednesday morning pops.

This front will not bring any cooler air to the region tomorrow and will be followed by a warm up for the rest of the week. Our afternoon temps will move into the mid-90s Wednesday through Friday with morning lows in the mid-70s. South winds around 10 to 15 mph will be likely with a few gusts near 20 mph for the middle to the end of the week. Another stronger front will drop southward by the end of the week arriving Saturday or Sunday across the state.

The upper air pattern continues to show signs of the main belt of westerlies slowly migrating southward. A mid-level ridge of high pressure will continue to be the main feature of interest Wednesday through Friday, but the ridge will flatten and a stroner cold front will approach the state late this week into the weekend. The actual data suggest the front will arrive Saturday morning, but the timing of this boundary could easily change. Our forecast will keep cooler air for the weekend with highs in the lower to mid 80s and lows in the upper 60s and lower 70s.

The official Tulsa high yesterday was 97. The normal average high is 90 and the low 68. Our daily records for today include a high of 108 from 2000. The daily record low is 48 from 1967.

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Alan Crone