Scattered Showers and Storms Today

Friday, August 29th 2014, 4:13 am

By: Alan Crone

We're tracking scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state today including the morning hours. This system will keep the rain and storm chances in the forecast through the first half of the weekend. A broad range of temperatures may be possible this afternoon, but we're forecasting many locations to remain in the 80s.

The main upper level system will be moving across southwestern Kansas today and then eastward into the Missouri Valley by Saturday morning. This system will be weakening with time but showers and storms will be sliding northeast into northern and eastern OK this morning with additional scattered thunderstorm development later this afternoon and tonight. Not all locations will experience showers or storms but the chances will remain in the moderate to high category for most areas. I should also mention that some of the hi-res model data diminishes the morning showers quickly and holds off with any additional storms until the afternoon. Regardless…clouds along with some rain-cooled air should keep temperatures below some of the computer model suggestions and we continue to forecast numbers below these suggestions for afternoon highs. This means readings today should remain in the mid-80s for highs along with south to southeast winds around 10 mph. Severe weather is not expected but a few storms may produce some gusty winds and locally heavy rainfall, but only in a few locations. Otherwise the scattered showers and storms will be more of the “garden variety" throughout the morning hours with a few stronger cells developing later this afternoon with some daytime heating. Again, I need to stress that we'll see several breaks in the precipitation that will allow for the variability in highs across the region.

Overnight into Saturday morning scattered showers and storms should again populate part (but not all) of Eastern OK for a few hours. We're thinking most of the precip will gradually diminish or slide southeast after the morning hours allowing afternoon highs near 90. Some breaks in the clouds will allow for partly sunny conditions tomorrow afternoon along with south winds near 10 mph. A few spotty thunderstorms may develop late Saturday night into Sunday morning across the OK-Kansas state line but the coverage is expected to be very low. I may not include these low pops on the 7 day planner, but will make that determination right before air-time today.

Sunday into Monday continues to offer low confidence in the data. Several model runs suggest a boundary lurking near the northern state line while other runs keep the front slightly northward. I continue to think most of the showers and storms Sunday into Monday should remain just north of most of northern OK, but our friends in southeastern Kansas may deal with some Labor Day storms.

Temperatures Sunday into Monday will rebound back into the 90s with Monday in the mid-90s.

Tuesday through the middle of next week will remain near normal with morning lows in the lower to mid-70s and afternoon highs in the mid-90s.

The official Tulsa high yesterday was 95 recorded at 3:34pm. The normal average high is 91 and the low 69. Our daily records for today include a high of 107 from 1984. The daily record low is 51 from 1931.

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Alan Crone