Tuesday Morning Update

Tuesday, August 26th 2014, 4:39 am

By: Alan Crone

The short term forecast continues to revolve around the hot temps again today, but the medium range forecast will turn attention to an increasing chance of showers and storms. This system is currently located across part of the Pacific Northwest and will drop through the intermountain region of the Rockies before entering the central or southern plains Friday into the weekend.   The timing of the system is not consistent in the various model outputs, but we have some confidence with an increasing chance of showers or storms by late Thursday night into the weekend. Temperatures should also begin to drop a few degrees by the middle of the week and possibly into the upper 80s Friday or Saturday.

The medium range data support the ridge flattening by Thursday and Friday. The upper air flow will bring a disturbance across the western U.S. and into the central plains states Friday into the weekend.   There could be one or two isolated storms today across far eastern OK. We'll see a few isolated showers and storms across extreme eastern OK Wednesday or Thursday as low level moisture flows into the state. But the chances will be increasing later Thursday across the western half of the state as the main upper level system approaches from the west. Most, if not all of the Thursday pops will remain to our west.

Friday into Saturday will feature the higher chance for showers and storms for the eastern third of the state. The exact timing will continue to change, so I won't be too specific at this hour. This system may move out of the areas by Saturday midday, or could linger into the early Sunday morning hours.   Regardless, we will increase the probabilities for Friday and Saturday.

Temperatures today will remain around 98 to 100 today. A gradual decrease in both afternoon and morning temps will be experienced tomorrow and cooler air by Thursday into the weekend.   A few spots may drop into the 80s for highs by the end of the week.

The official Tulsa high yesterday was 100 recorded at 2:54pm.    The normal average high is 92 and the low 70. Our daily records for today include a high of 109 from 1999. The daily record low is 52 from 1910.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather discussion and blog.

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Alan Crone

KOTV