A Hot Weekend Ahead

Friday, August 22nd 2014, 4:43 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning. Our forecast discussion remains basically unchanged from the previous posts: hot temperatures will remain for the next few days with little chance for significant rainfall.   A mid-level ridge of high pressure may strengthen slightly over eastern OK and western Arkansas this weekend before slowly moving east-southeast and weakening late next week. Until this pattern change occurs, we're locked into a summer-time pattern.

I do want to briefly mention something we've seen in some of the last few high-res model runs. Some of the models are hinting at an isolated storm or two this afternoon during peak daytime heating near the Tulsa area. The odds of this occurring are extremely low. If we had any mentions to the forecast this afternoon it will be in the “ isolated” category.

The northern and western edge of the ridge will present a small window for a few showers and storms across northwestern OK and southwestern Kansas tonight and this weekend, but we anticipate these showers and storms will remain too far west or northwest to have any impact on our region.

The last few runs of model data also support a slight mixing of local dews during the midday to afternoon for the weekend. This will have a tendency to work against an increasing heat index temperature profile. This means the heat index will only be a few degrees above our actual temperatures for the next few days. But, due to the expected hot afternoon highs, specific criteria for heat advisories will be very close. If the local dews or mixing of the moisture does not occur, the index would cross 105 and advisories would be required. Regardless, we encourage you to remain aware of this mini heat wave this weekend into early next week. Some locations could be included in heat advisories for the weekend.

The GFs and EURO have been very inconsistent regarding next week. I'll spare the details. We have increased the temps for Wednesday and then started a downward trend for Thursday of next week. We'll keep the mention of showers and storms in the forecast for the middle to end of next week.

Tropical development:

Our friends at the NHC are tracking a possible tropical system. This system near the Leeward Islands this morning may develop into a tropical system during the next few days. You'll be hearing more about this system soon. Remember, it's almost impossible to highlight any exact path or intensity of any tropical system during the early stages of development. A number of social media posts may posting all kinds of information regarding a hurricane during the next few days or next week. I would encourage you to seek information from trusted sources, such as the National Hurricane Center, local National Weather Service offices, local media sources, etc.   Tropical forecasting is extremely difficult. Many changes in model data and forecast tracks will be likely to occur.

The official Tulsa high yesterday was 97 recorded at 3:48pm.    The normal average high is 93 and the low 71. Our daily records for today include a high of 106 from 1936. The daily record low is 50 from 1920.

Thanks for reading the Friday Morning Weather discussion and blog.

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I'll be discussing the forecast on Radio Oklahoma News affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Alan Crone

KOTV