Monday Morning Update

Monday, August 18th 2014, 4:50 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning. Other than a small complex of weakening showers and storms this morning, Our main forecast challenge revolves around our afternoon highs and heat index values . There will be an outside chance of a few showers or storms later tonight across the far southeastern Kansas and northern OK areas, but our chances will remain low after this morning's storms across far NE OK dissipate. . The radar should be void of precip after the 7am hour this morning with temps in the 70s. South to southwest winds will arrive later today around 10 to 15 mph with daytime temps topping out around 97 to 99 with the heat index around 100 to 104. I don't think we'll see wide spread heat advisories today, but it's possible that a few locations could be under advisories today and tomorrow. Regardless, you should keep hydrated as we move into a hot and humid week.

The main upper level pattern will resemble a typical mid-August flow. The main polar jet is well north and a mid-level ridge of high pressure will be centered near the southern plains allowing growing heat and humidity values for the short term and mid-week forecast. The northern edge of the ridge will be near the northern part of the state. This should allow a weak boundary to approach the area later tonight, but it will more than likely stall with little impact across the region. A few showers or storms may take a run at the state line area tonight, and a few could easily slide into the state, but these will weaken quickly. I'll keep the mention in the forecast but keep the coverage north of the Tulsa metro for later tonight.

This morning's complex will deposit an outflow boundary near the northern third of the state. Some scattered thunderstorms will be possible along this boundary this afternoon, but the chances will remain very low. Capping ( warm air aloft) may prohibit anything from occurring.

Temperatures will continue to climb during the next few days. This means morning lows will stay around 75 and highs from 96 to 100 for the week.

The GFS and EURO both suggest the mid-level ridge will move eastward next week allowing a cold front to march southward by either Monday or Tuesday with a decent chance of showers or storms. This may also bring us a decent cool down. But we're a whole week away. Summer is back.

The official Tulsa high yesterday was 98 recorded at 4pm. The normal average high is 93 and the low 71. Our daily records for today include a high of 109 from 1918 and a low of 54 from 1943.

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