Wednesday Morning Update

Wednesday, August 13th 2014, 4:39 am

By: Alan Crone

Good morning! We're experiencing temperatures this morning in the upper 50s and lower 60s in the Tulsa metro with even cooler air across northeastern OK and southeastern Kansas. A few mid 50s may occur before the 7am hour. The pattern will slowly change tomorrow and then we're going to see a big warm up for the weekend into early next week. A few showers or storms may be possible this weekend into early next week, but the chances will remain low.

The main pattern across the country hasn't changed much. A trough is located across the Great Lakes Region, amid level ridge is across the southwest, and another trough is developing near the Pacific Northwest. This pattern will keep our dry air mass across the Missouri Valley and the Ozarks for one more day before southerly surface winds return with increasing moisture and heat Friday into the weekend.

The models have been consistent with bringing a disturbance on the top side of the mid-level ridge this weekend into early next week, but the timing and strength of the wave is modeled differently by the GFS and EURO. This difference, however, is minor, and doesn't lead to any big changes by siding with one solution versus the other. Our pops will remain around 20% and mainly for the northern third of the state into southeastern Kansas for Saturday, and then Sunday into early next week. If we do make any changes, it would more than likely be to increase the pops to 30% for Monday.

The temperatures continue to climb in the data and in our forecast.

Our highs this afternoon will remain below the seasonal average with most locations topping out near 86 to 88 with light winds and sunny conditions. Thursday into Friday we'll start in the 60s and finish around 90 to 92 but you will notice increasing moisture levels.

The weekend into Monday has the potential to see a larger jump in the temperatures than I currently have forecasted. We're seeing hints of a southwest surface flow Sunday into Monday ahead of a surface cold front that should move southward sometime Monday. This expected wind profile and thermal set up can allow increasing temps directly ahead of the approaching boundary. Our lush ( by August standards) green vegetation may off-set this increase compared to what could happen over dry soils but temperatures could move into the upper 90s Sunday and Monday near Northern OK. I think some triple digits will be likely across southwestern into central OK this weekend. The boundary will move southward sometime Monday but should stall. The GFS brings this boundary southward Saturday night for a few hours before moving back northward quickly Sunday morning. We'll side with the EURO positioning at this moment. This front will not bring any air mass change but will keep a slight mention of showers and storms near the area Monday into Tuesday of next week.

The official Tulsa high yesterday was 85 recorded at 3:56pm. The normal average high is 94 and the low 72. Our daily records for today include a high of 114 from 1936 and a low of 54 from 1967.

Thanks for reading the Tuesday Morning Weather discussion and blog.

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You'll also hear me on numerous Tulsa metro radio stations including KMOD, The Twister, The Beat, and The Sports Buzz.

I'll be discussing the forecast on Radio Oklahoma News affiliates across the state this morning through the noon hour.

Have a super great day!

Alan Crone

KOTV