Early Thursday Morning Update

Thursday, August 7th 2014, 3:34 am

By: Alan Crone

Welcome to Thursday. We've been tracking a few thunderstorms moving across southeastern Kansas and northeastern OK. A few of these have been strong to severe with some wind issues. The showers and storms will either move quickly away from the area or dissipate during the next few hours, but a few more thunderstorms will be possible later today in these same areas.

Our weather pattern will remain somewhat stagnant for the next few days. A mid-level ridge of high pressure has flattened and is centered to the southwest of our immediate area. This will create a northwesterly flow aloft allowing showers and storms that develop out of the central plains to move southeast with time into part of extreme northeastern OK. A weak frontal boundary is located north of the area this morning and should remain north of the area today and tomorrow. This boundary will also provide a focus for some additional storms to our north that could move into the region.

Several waves or disturbances aloft will brush the state over the next few days, and any of these waves could produce a few showers or storms, but the coverage is expected to remain small. Our forecast will keep a slight chance of showers or storms across the northern third of the state into southeastern Kansas from now through the weekend. The timing of any individual wave is difficult but we’re seeing a slightly higher signal for the Friday night and pre-dawn Saturday period, again across the northern third of the state.

The GFS and EURO data suggest the boundary will slide southward again Sunday or Monday and may not cross the state until Monday or Tuesday. Temperatures will continue to warm ahead of the boundary with readings slightly above the seasonal average with an increase in the temperature heat index values. Yesterday's index touched 100 during the afternoon and we'll see readings around 100 to 103 into the weekend. These readings will not be high enough to warrant heat advisories, but we're getting closer to these types of products being issued. You should remain aware of the increasing heat and pre-hydrate for outdoor activities.